BringYa, um, self, to the conference finals
The NBA's new-look Final Four starts now and a special computer's widely questioned championship series projection from October, which was shared with you via this Substack, is still alive
The Minnesota Timberwolves were laughed at when they stuffed four future first-round picks and a pick swap and Walker Kessler into a trade package for Rudy Gobert … and then signed Naz Reid to a contract extension to form a jumbo-sized frontcourt trio alongside Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns.
This publication was laughed at in October when we ran a simulation of the season to come as generated by our friends at Strat-O-Matic that predicted a Timberwolves/Boston Celtics showdown in the NBA Finals.
The real-life Timberwolves, to be fair, are in a much better position than us to uncork a string of told-you-sos, because the Strat-O simulation got plenty wrong (as you can confirm by re-living the piece here). Yet I simply couldn't resist, with the NBA's conference finals about to begin, loudly shouting out my Strat-O pals and their very managerial game (as compared to NBA 2K), since I can't really remember any other neutral party that was as high on the Timberwolves in October as they were.
Exactly what happens during the 2023-24 NBA season is exclusively revealed here today*
Consider me one of those stubborn souls who likes to scoff at the notion that retirement would be filled with boredom. There just won't be enough to do on a daily basis without a job. I don't buy it. I say this all as a very hypocritical workaholic who can't picture myself retiring from NBA reportage — ever — but that's a separate discussion. I simply cont…
The Strat-O simulation did not, as facetiously suggested in the headline, exclusively reveal "exactly" what would happen during the 2023-24 season. But it did nail Boston's regular-season record on the nose at 64-18 and registered the loudest pre-Halloween belief in the long-suffering Wolves that you could find anywhere.
One interesting sidebar here, for those of you (like me) inclined to look back at the simulation's varying degrees of prognostication success on this Newsletter Tuesday, is that the Strat-O model couldn't account in October for in-season trades.
Regular readers know by now that I am prone to point out how rarely major roster additions in February lead to NBA championships in June. It happened in 1995 when the Houston Rockets, as defending champions, acquired Clyde Drexler from Portland to reunite him with his Phi Slamma Jamma teammate Hakeem Olajuwon. It happened again in 2004 when the Detroit Pistons acquired Rasheed Wallace from Atlanta ... just days after the Hawks acquired Wallace from the Trail Blazers.
Of a more recent vintage: Toronto traded for Memphis' Marc Gasol in February 2019 en route to the first championship in Raptors history. Yet these playoffs offer two potential additions to the short list: Both Indiana and Dallas made significant moves before this season's trade deadline to raise their respective ceilings.
The Pacers followed up their unexpected trip to the In-Season Tournament title game in Las Vegas by sealing a deal with the Raptors on Jan. 18 to import Pascal Siakam as a high-level sidekick to Tyrese Haliburton. Widely expected in league circles to re-sign with Indiana in the offseason on a long-term contract extension, Siakam is averaging 21.1 points and 7.5 rebounds for the Pacers in the playoffs.
The Mavericks, meanwhile, drastically changed the identity of their team with deadline-day deals that landed P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford in Dallas. Their arrivals, along with the rapid development of rookie center Dereck Lively II and the remarkable impact of minimum-contract August signee Derrick Jones Jr., has made this the most defense-first Dallas team in the 25-plus years that I have covered this franchise from close range. Washington, remember, had never appeared in a playoff game before this season.
The Strat-O simulator provocatively predicted a 4-0 Celtics sweep over the Wolves back in October. The Pacers and Mavericks, fortified by trades no computer could anticipate, stand in the way of that matchup actually materializing.
There will be lots to see and learn over the next couple weeks leading up to a TBD NBA Finals pairing that does already come with two guarantees:
1. The Finals are starting June 6 — no matter what. I confirmed Tuesday with the league office that there will be no move-up scenario even if both the East and West finals end in five games (or even faster).
2. I know we've been saying this a lot lately, but it's important to keep noting that the NBA is going to crown its sixth new champion in a span of six seasons … important because it hasn't happened in #thisleague since 1974-75 through 1979-80.
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Second-Round Predictions Results
No one in The Stein Line community correctly picked the winners in all four second-round matchups in these playoffs.
Only five respondents correctly picked three winners … and only one of those (congrats Jon Kramer!) got the series score right along with those picks.
As for your faithful newsletter curator … I only got two out of four series right in Round 2. Thanks as always to longtime loyal subscriber Deven P. for tallying up the results … with some screenshots of his handiwork included to illustrate the specifics.
The file to register your conference finals predictions embedded in this sentence will stay open until closer to Pacers at Celtics gametime later tonight.
Numbers Game
🏀 16
We repeat: The NBA Finals will begin in 16 days on June 6. The league has set that date in stone and will not move it up even if the East and West crowns are won in fast fashion.
🏀 10
Ten existing NBA franchises have yet to win a championship in their current or previous cities: Brooklyn, Charlotte, Indiana, LA Clippers, Memphis, Minnesota, New Orleans, Orlando, Phoenix and Utah.
🏀 2
Two of those 10 teams, obviously, are still alive in these playoffs. The Pacers are in the midst of their 48th NBA season after winning three ABA championships and the Timberwolves are in their 35th season.
🏀 5
Half of those 10 franchises still chasing championship No. 1 have never experienced an NBA Finals game. That includes the Timberwolves, who only won two playoff rounds in the club's first 34 seasons (advancing to the Western Conference finals in 2004) before their run this spring.
🏀 2014
Indiana is making its first conference finals appearance since 2014.
🏀 54
The Clippers have gone 54 years without a championship once you include their eight Buffalo seasons and six more in San Diego. Charlotte (34 NBA seasons), Memphis (29) and New Orleans (22) are the other three teams along with Minnesota still waiting for their first taste of the NBA Finals.
🏀 2003
Dallas' American Airlines Center will play host to conference finals games in both the NBA and the NHL this month. The last building to do double duty was the former Continental Airlines Arena in New Jersey that housed the Jason Kidd-led Nets and hockey's New Jersey Devils in 2003.
🏀 1995
The Texas Rangers won their first World Series in October. The Mavericks are in the conference finals for the second time in three seasons and the Dallas Stars have reached hockey's Final Four three times in the past five seasons. The Dallas Cowboys, meanwhile, have not reached the NFC title game since their last Super Bowl season way back in 1995.
🏀 217
My pal Keith Smith has counted up 217 free agents who are poised to hit the market on June 30 and has written something about all of them in his latest Spotrac piece found here.
🏀 121-120
Denver's 121-120 loss at San Antonio on April 12 in its second-to-last game of the regular season cost the defending champions the No. 1 seed in the West and forced the Nuggets to face Minnesota in the second round. Victor Wembanyama racked up 34 points and 12 rebounds for the 22-60 Spurs.
🏀 8
Victories Sunday by Indiana and Minnesota pushed road teams to a heady 8-4 in Game 7s over the past four seasons. Other recent road winners in Game 7s in that span: Milwaukee over Brooklyn in 2021, Atlanta over Philadelphia in 2021, Dallas over Phoenix in 2022, Boston over Miami in 2022, Golden State over Sacramento in 2023 and Miami over Boston in 2023.
🏀 .543
Another frequent topic on this Substack this season: The ongoing erosion of homecourt advantage in the modern (and 3-pointer heavy) NBA. Home teams posted a composite winning percentage of .543 this season at 668-562 ... good for the worst composite home record in league history.
🏀 16
Suns owner Mat Ishbia will pay more than $16 million next season to two head coaches: New hire Mike Budenhozler ($10 million range) and the ousted Frank Vogel ($6 million).
IND with an all time choke job - two unforced turnovers in final 30 seconds of regulation when up 3 points. Will be tough mentally recovering knowing they HAD Game 1
Can you remember a team that has had an easier ride to the NBA Finals than Boston? Miami, Cleveland and possibly Indiana? That is as easy as it gets. Though the Knicks would have made it even easier due to their injuries. Pretty amazing if you think about it.