What’s next for LeBron James?
Most signs do point to more basketball
If you were in the building ... you were thinking it.
You were also surely thinking it if you were watching on TV.
You had to be thinking it Monday night because, well, we were all thinking it.
Is this LeBron James' final NBA game?
There is a gap, however, between mere thought and true expectation. My belief/sense/read, when forced to adopt a predictive posture, is that we have not seen the last of LeBron in the NBA. Everyone I've asked in the league who I would classify as better positioned than me to offer up their read says the same. No one can name the team yet with certitude, but it sure seems more likely than not that James will be back in 2026-27 for Season No. 24.
Is he really going to leave the game for good when he was just the best player in the Houston series in Round 1 at age 41?
I think not.
However ...
The truth is that no one knows for sure. Maybe not even LeBron himself. So surmising is all we can do at this juncture. James keeps insisting that he isn't sure yet — his lack of clarity voiced after Oklahoma City ended the Lakers' season was pretty much the same thing he said during All-Star Weekend in Los Angeles — and it's a reasonable position for him to share out loud given all the complicating variables involved.
James' eight seasons in Lakerland represent the longest continuous stint of his career with one team. Staying in Los Angeles, by all accounts, is his runaway A scenario preference. His son Bronny, of course, remains under contract to the Lakers for one more guaranteed season before a team option in 2027-28.
Yet it's also an open secret that the Lakers want to remake their roster around Luka Dončić this offseason and have been pointing to the summer of 2026 to do so for some time ... with cap space they'll only have by letting James' $52.6 million salary in 2025-26 dribble off the books on June 30.
Re-signing him at a much lower number is believed to appeal to the Lakers ... but selling one of the game's all-time greats on the sort of steep discount he's never taken is thorny. To put it mildly.
Is James really going to be amenable to playing at a drastically reduced rate?
The only comfort for the Lakers there, before any such discount talks get serious, is that pretty much any other team that would conceivably interest James as a potential destination faces their own financial challenges.
The Golden State Warriors, who league sources say have maintained a longstanding interest in bringing James to Northern California, will be severely limited in what they can offer. James' hometown Cleveland Cavaliers have even less financial flexibility than the Warriors and are so far away from all the Tinseltown ties that LeBron and his family have established during this run as a Laker ... but no one wants to totally rule that one out because of the storybook ending factor. (Also: The Cavs were once resistant to the idea of another reunion, but they might be more open to a third marriage given that they're facing the prospect of a third successive humbling postseason after failing to close out Detroit at home on Friday night and now need to win a Game 7 on the road Sunday to keep their season alive.)
Beyond that?
James' deep fondness for Madison Square Garden has been known for years, but the Knicks — suddenly favorites to win the East and go to the NBA Finals for the first time since 1999 — could certainly opt to stay on their current path. The only other team you could credibly add to the shortlist is the Clippers, who employ James' former Cavaliers coach (Tyronn Lue) and do play in Los Angeles.
There just simply aren't many places you can imagine appealing to James for a farewell season and pretty much none (as CBS Sports' Sam Quinn detailed this week) that wouldn't also be confronted by significant contractual challenges if they do decide to make a run at it.
That's a big reason why James can so credibly claim that he doesn't know yet if he's going to keep going. We might realistically sit a good six weeks away from having a solid feel for what kind of firm offers he'll have to choose from.
And that's why there was so much Just In Case energy in the air at The Building Formerly Known As Staples Center when a 115-110 loss to Oklahoma City clinched a 4-0 series sweep for the Thunder and brought an end to No. 23's 23rd NBA campaign.
Lynn Merritt, LeBron's longtime Nike brand manager and confidant, flew in from Oregon to be courtside. Hollywood A-listers like Jessica Alba, Leonardo DiCaprio and the legendary Eddie Murphy were all occupying prominent seats, too, even though the Lakers' season, in truth, was already gone before the opening tip with the Thunder up 3-0 in the series and Dončić still not close to being cleared to return from his devastating Grade 2 hamstring strain. Even the Suns' Dillon (The Villain) Brooks, after years of trying to annoy James in countless matchups, had secured to a ticket to be close by.
Just in case.
I, too, was in attendance. And I, too, got swept up in the moment and felt the need to snap a few pictures of James going through his pregame preparatory routine.
If it does prove to be his farewell — in the event that the sweep-clinching Game 4 defeat was unexpectedly really it — it means that I can selfishly say that I was present for James' first real NBA game (Oct. 29, 2003 in Sacramento) as well as his last. (PS — Unfortunately just discovered while assembling this paragraph, by the way, that the ESPN.com link to my story from that night no longer displays that story … gut punch.)
Yet I repeat: My suspicion is that he'll be back next October.
I used to think there was even a chance that James might try to become the first player in league history to play in 25 seasons, but two well-placed league observers whose viewpoint I truly trust here insisted this week that one more season is the far smarter and safer forecast ... pointing to the back and leg woes that messed with James' offseason training last summer and ultimately sidelined him for this season's first 14 games.
There is little doubt, though, that he can still be a difference-maker next season even after turning 42 in December. The Rockets found that out the hard way when James averaged 23.2 points, 7.2 rebounds and 8.3 assists in Round 1.
As Oklahoma City's Alex Caruso put it recently: "Everybody wants to talk about his age, but he's still LeBron James. He's still capable of being the best player on the court any given night."
I normally wouldn't have had the chance to observe James from such close range before Game 4 if he hadn't changed things up recently. He used to get in his pregame shooting for home games early in the afternoons, hours before media members were typically allowed inside, but the increased offensive load he had to carry with Dončić sidelined led James to opt for more robust shooting drills within an hour-ish of tipoff time to be warmer for the first quarter than the old routine allowed. So I was mere steps away to watch him get loose and even capture a (hopefully passable) image or two.
Just in case.
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Playoff Math
Two of the NBA's four second-round matchups played out in sweeps, but that didn't stop NBA advanced stats maven Roland Beech from digging deeper to try to quantify the physicality advantages that the teams doing the sweeping imposed.
Beech, remember, founded 82games.com in the early 2000s and ranks as one of the pioneers in the NBA analytics space, having worked on the Dallas Mavericks' coaching staff starting in 2009-10, working his way up to a vice president of basketball operations title with the Mavericks and later moving to Sacramento as vice president of basketball strategy and data science for the Kings.
🏀 According to Beech's metrics, Oklahoma City won the physicality battle in three of its four wins over the Lakers and was especially effective in the "ball pressure" department … both in how the Thunder handled the Lakers' pressure and trapping of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as well as how many turnovers they forced with their own defense. The Thunder pressure the ball better than anyone in the NBA and also had a big edge over the Lakers at the rim thanks to Chet Holmgren's monster +29 reading in terms of two-way rim physicality. Beech notes, though, that LeBron James came away with a +27 net wins mark in physicality duels with an extremely physical team, showing what an impact he can still have.
🏀 The Knicks didn't just broom Philadelphia out of the playoffs and usher the 76ers into an offseason of upheaval that began with the firing of president of basketball operations Daryl Morey. They also dominated Beech's Playing Hard metrics in this series … especially so in various defensive effort plays that he describes as quickness in joining a trap, applying pressure from a help position, making multiple efforts on a possession, executing effective switches and strongly contesting a jump shot. The top three players in the series in terms of their overall Playing Hard score were New York's Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges and Jalen Brunson. Tyrese Maxey, meanwhile, had moments of force for Philadelphia but they were undone by his shotmaking woes (43.3% from the field and 15.8% from deep) that were presumably impacted by a pinky injury on Maxey's shooting hand.
(Substack) Note(s) of the Week
Declarations of note via Substack Notes:
Mark.. I found this on archive.org. (Your story on Lebron from October 30, 2003). https://web.archive.org/web/20031203085712/http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=stein_marc&id=1650052
I’ve actually convinced myself LeBron signing with the Knicks for an exception or the veteran minimum, makes sense on many levels.
with as few words as you get in a comment box, I’ll try to explain:
He needs OG & Bridges types around him, not Reaves and Luka (not to mention Townes Brunson Hart Mitch). NY is best place for his legacy because he can win there. We aren’t Kobe fans and will appreciate LeBron fully. And financially, NY can make sense because of the merchandising revenue and brand value. And yes I remember back around when he made “the decision”, he said he loved the rims at the garden, so honor those words. When you’re over 40, ring chasing can’t be held against you. You’ve earned the right to that ring by being a great player still at 40+