11 Takes on the NBA Finals: What We Know Now about the Celtics and Mavs
NBA Substack on Boston's dominance, Luka's defense, and more
We asked 11 leading NBA voices on Substack:
What do we know now about the Celtics and Mavericks?
Check out their answers and subscribe!
|
I'm focusing on the Celtics because they deserve it. They moved to the brink of a Finals sweep with no Kristaps Porziņģis in Game 3, steeled themselves after a fourth-quarter meltdown to illustrate how much they've learned from past playoff failures and, most of all, have made a mockery of the notion that championship-or-bust pressure might eventually break them.
I didn't think Boston could blitz the Western Conference champs like this and they've proven me wrong, validating the remarkable regular season they had while also hushing the skeptics who took issue with the ease of their playoff opposition in the East. The team of the season is going to win the season's ultimate prize.
|
I know they needed to win just one more series, but the feeling I had while working for the Mavericks still holds true: Luka Dončić needs to change his defensive mindset if he wants to lead a team to an NBA title.
He averages around 10 defensive blunders — essentially "gifting" the Celtics around a dozen points — every game. Against the best of the best, this 12-point deficit is impossible to overcome.
|
We knew Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown were excellent players. We knew the Boston offense was incredible. We knew Jrue Holiday and Derrick White could make life very difficult for opposing scorers.
What I've learned in this series is that Joe Mazzulla has the juice to believe his own theory of the battle and pursue it relentlessly. The decision to mostly play the Mavericks one-on-one, the rotation with and without Kristaps Porziņģis, the relentless and vicious targeting of Luka and Kyrie on defense … it's been a master class. What a revelation.
|
We know that the Celtics are uniquely constructed to put this Mavericks offense in hell. How many other teams are there that could execute the defensive strategy Boston has used in this series, at this level? Well, how many other teams are there that have four guys like Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, and Jayson Tatum, and that can put guys like Al Horford and Kristaps Porziņģis (or even Xavier Tillman) behind them? Obviously, the answer is none.
|
Game 3 laid to rest any conversations about who the best duo is in this series, and for the time being, in the league. As great an offensive combination as Luka and Kyrie are, what the two Jays have done in these Finals has shown just how comprehensively dominant a pairing they have become. Offense wins admirers, but defense wins championships, and Jayson and Jaylen are as great a two-way combo as we’ve seen in quite some time.
|
We know the Celtics are capable of building massive leads on the Mavericks … and we also know they are capable of squandering them.
In Game 3, Dallas almost pulled off the Super Bowl LI-style 99.8% win probability comeback (according to ESPN's model) — if Luka Doncic doesn't foul out with four minutes left, I think the Mavs probably would have won — and that's been a recurring theme for this Boston team, letting outmatched opponents off the hook after seemingly having them buried.
I would say sooner or later, that comes back to haunt a team, but then again, there might not be a later for the Mavs. NBA teams up 3-0 are 151-0 in the playoffs all-time, including 14-0 in the Finals. The only solace for Dallas now is that only three Finals have ended in a sweep this century, with only one (2018 Warriors over Cavs) coming since 2007. And that even while facing elimination, we know the Mavs aren't going to feel particularly panicked if they spot the Celtics a 20+ point lead again …
|
Red Auerbach supposedly said, “The best team beats the best individual every time.” That doesn’t fit perfectly here, but it’s pretty close. Dallas has two tremendous individuals in Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving, but it’s Boston’s depth that has them up 3-0. The Celtics’ stars have done their thing, but everyone has stepped up. Even Xavier Tillman Sr., playing only because Kristaps Porziņģis is injured, delivered for Boston. The Celtics are a deep, versatile, good-shooting team on the verge of Banner 18.
|
If there’s anything we’ve learned, celebrities don’t want to fly to Dallas or Boston.
We’re missing the courtside energy and star power that you get in more enticing markets. Mark Wahlberg gave me … nothing. Patrick Mahomes … just made me think of Taylor Swift.
If there’s a Game 5, maybe we’ll get a Ben Affleck x divorce rumors appearance at The Garden.
However, it still doesn’t pack the same punch as an Adele spotting.
A good Finals needs a good script and the script as it stands now needs a rewrite.
|
We know the Celtics aren’t their best selves without Porziņģis. We also know that doesn’t matter against these clearly outgunned Mavs. Jayson Tatum played better, if still not his best. Jaylen Brown added another entry to his Finals MVP case. Derrick White and Jrue Holiday continued to make all the timely plays. Al Horford did Kevin Love one better, gamely contesting that Kyrie 3 towards the end.
Do the Mavericks steal this one and make it interesting if Luka doesn’t foul out with 4-plus minutes left? Possibly. But their problem was getting blown out in the 3rd, not failing to show fight in the 4th. Dallas just doesn’t have the horses.
|
While there’s many things we’ve learned about both teams, I think the most important player-centric lesson is this: The Mavericks may not be able to win because of Luka Dončić.
As strange as that may sound, Dončić’s defense has been abysmal this series, with Game 3 being the extra sour cherry on top. Simply put, Luka’s penchant for allowing blow-bys with the defense of a gnat is killing this team.
|
6’4” Jrue Holiday is the series’ leading offensive rebounder. Derrick White shot 31% from deep the season he was traded to Boston; he has more triples than anyone else through three games. Jayson Tatum, a power forward, has more assists than Luka Dončić.
Dallas is an excellent basketball team, with normal-ish players playing normal-ish positions. But Boston is shapeshifting, primordial goo: They ooze into whatever cracks and flaws an opponent possesses, ripping and tearing along the way. Whatever they need, they can get from any player at any position. It’s awful in the most archaic sense of the term.