A title defense in tatters

Denver's 0-2 start at home in its second-round showdown with Minnesota is the NBA playoff curveball no one saw coming ... and demanded immediate attention from the Tuesday Newsletter Extravaganza

This is the way, right or wrong, it almost always works on Planet NBA:

We typically don't believe you can do it, really do it, until we actually see you do it on the grandest of stages.

Then we believe in you unreservedly ... and maybe too much.

All of that seems to apply more than ever given what we're seeing from the Denver Nuggets against the Minnesota Timberwolves in their supposed Second Round Series For The Ages. I can certainly admit such thinking was a major driver in prompting me to pick the Nuggets to win the series in seven games before it started.

The Nuggets are the NBA's reigning title team. They just eliminated LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers in five games in the first round despite trailing for nearly 170 out of a possible 240 minutes in those five games. Denver also boasts the league's most feared homecourt advantage, with an assist from the altitude, so it was widely presumed entering Monday night's Game 2 that there was simply no way that the defending champs from Denver could lose to their Rudy Gobert-less visitors.

Narrator: But they damn sure did.

The Nuggets fell into a 61-35 hole by halftime, trailed by as many as 32 points, lost their composure along the way and were ultimately obliterated by a count of 106-80.

"They punked us," Denver’s Reggie Jackson said. "They literally manhandled us."

Added Nuggets coach Michael Malone: "We got beat up in our building. We got embarrassed in front of our fans."

For all the evidence we had going in that A) this Minnesota roster was assembled by Tim Connelly specifically with taking down the Nikola Jokić -led Nuggets in mind and B) Minnesota should be well-known by now as the league's most fearsome defensive team … actually picking the Wolves to win this series was seen as rather bold as recently as Saturday afternoon.

Now?

Now it is being credibly asked all over Planet NBA: Can the Wolves actually sweep this series?

And: Are we looking at a new title favorite?

The Minnesota Lynx have won four WNBA championships, but the Vikings, Twins, Wild and Wolves have combined for zero championships since the Twins won the World Series in (gasp) 1991. That has become an increasingly relevant stat to start pondering … even though you've heard me issue the reminder numerous times during the season that the Wolves, in particular, hadn't even won a playoff series in 20 years dating all the way back to 2004 before their first-round sweep of Phoenix.

These Wolves, with Chris Finch not even able to coach this team to the fullest because of the freakish (and surgery-necessitating) knee injury he sustained in Game 4 of the Phoenix series, are 6-0 in these playoffs. Previous Wolves teams were 21-42 in the playoffs across a whopping 34-season span.

Does the NBA truly have a new championship favorite?

Well ...

You figured that the Wolves needed to win two games in Denver to win this series ... and they already have.

Jokić managed to get off only 13 shots in Game 2 while Jamal Murray (who, in fairness, is playing through a calf injury) was in the midst of a nightmare that featured 3-for-18 shooting and, after he dangerously tossed a heat pack onto the floor in Game 2, could actually lead to a Game 3 suspension (although a fine is more likely). Thanks to Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Minnesota boasts as much imposing length and physicality on the perimeter as it has inside with Gobert, Karl-Anthony Towns and Naz Reid.

Gobert is expected to be named Defensive Player of the Year later Tuesday. Jokić is expected to be named MVP for the third time in four seasons on Wednesday. Then Game 3 is in 'Sota on Friday.

The series is going so poorly so far for the champs that we've heard Jokić say after Game 1 that he could use a clone to help him combat the Timberwolves' array of big men and then say after Game 2 that there was really only one team on the floor. He appeared to offer the first observation in a humorous tone. There was zero laughter late Monday night.

Also remember: Something Denver didn't really face during last season's title march was deep in-series adversity. Those Nuggets went 16-4 overall and only had to snap two series ties (2-2 against Phoenix and 1-1 against Miami). Until this season, Jokić hadn’t tasted a Game 1 loss in five years dating to 2019 against San Antonio in his first-ever playoff game. The Nuggets made multiple impressive comebacks against the Lakers in Round 1, but now they'll need a historic comeback (see Numbers Game below) to claw out of this hole.

So, yeah: This, rather suddenly, is a title defense in tatters.

#thisleague

---

The Stein Line is a reader-supported newsletter with both Free and Paid subscriptions available … and those who opt for the Paid edition are taking an active role in the reporting by providing vital assistance to bolster my independent coverage of #thisleague. Feel free to forward this post to family and friends interested in the NBA and please consider becoming a Paid subscriber to have full access to all of my posts.

As a reminder: Tuesday editions, on this and every Newsletter Tuesday, go out free to anyone who signs up, just as my Tuesday pieces did in their New York Times incarnation.

---

Round 1 Community Prediction Tally

Congratulations Dan Hinrichs!

You were the only respondent to our call for first-round predictions, according to the valiant bookkeeping of longtime subscriber Deven P., to correctly predict all eight first-round winners.

Mr. Hinrichs' selections are featured below in a screencap of Deven's handiwork that shows forecasters who correctly picked the winner and exact number of games in four different first-round matchups. (Philly Hoops might have made it five of those but didn’t include a specific number of games in the Pacers' first-round triumph over Milwaukee.)

How did the newsletter host do? Seven of eight winners correct but only two series on the nose.

---

Numbers Game

🏀 5

Five teams in NBA history have lost the first two games of a best-of-seven series at home and then recovered to win the series. The Clippers last did it in 2021 against Dallas, preceded by the 2017 Celtics (against Chicago), 2005 Mavericks (against Houston), 1994 Rockets (against Phoenix) and 1969 Lakers (against Golden State).

🏀 4

The Timberwolves are also just the fourth team in league history to win the first two games of a playoff series on the road against the NBA's reigning champions, joining the 2020 Celtics (against Toronto), 2011 Mavericks (against the Lakers) and 1984 Nets (against Philadelphia in one of the most memorable series of my high school years).

🏀 4

New York's Jalen Brunson has scored at least 40 points in four consecutive playoff games. Only one player has ever had a longer stretch (Jerry West with six) in the playoffs and only two other players (Michael Jordan and Knicks legend Bernard King) have matched Brunson's four in a row. The full Basketball Reference list is imbedded in this sentence.

🏀 210

Via my fellow Substacker

Justin Kubatko

: Brunson has amassed 210 points and 47 assists across his last five playoff games. The only other players in league history to accrue at least 200 points and 40 assists over a five-game playoff span are Michael Jordan (April 30-May 9, 1989) and LeBron James (May 20-28, 2009).

🏀 46-3

On top of being justifiably aggrieved by multiple late whistles in Game 1 in the latest circus of an ending involving the Knicks, Indiana is surely wondering today how it lost the series opener after the Pacers' reserves outscored the Knicks' bench by a (no misprint) count of 46-3.

🏀 8

Dallas' Jason Kidd is the eighth NBA coach to secure a contract extension since Monty Williams received a six-year megadeal worth nearly $80 million in Detroit last June.

🏀 7

The seven before Kidd: San Antonio's Gregg Popovich, Oklahoma City's Mark Daigneault, Denver's Michael Malone, Indiana's Rick Carlisle, Miami's Erik Spoelstra, Golden State's Steve Kerr and Orlando's Jamahl Mosley. (H/T to The Athletic's Law Murray for the research.)

🏀 7

The Lakers are now looking for their seventh coach since Phil Jackson last occupied the hot seat in 2010-11.

🏀 13

In the 13 seasons since Jackson's departure, six coaches have succeeded him ... but none lasting more than three seasons: Mike Brown, Mike D'Antoni, Byron Scott, Luke Walton, Frank Vogel and Darvin Ham.

🏀 8

You heard Miami's Pat Riley reference this one in his end-of-season news conference Monday: Eight teams paid luxury tax this season and only two advanced past the first round of the playoffs: Boston and Denver.

🏀 6

The six that spent beyond $165.3 million in overall team payroll and went home disappointed (especially the first three): Warriors, Clippers, Suns, Bucks, Heat and Lakers.

🏀 1984-85

San Antonio's Victor Wembanyama on Monday became just the sixth rookie to win Rookie of the Year via a unanimous vote ... in part because he was the first rookie to lead the league in blocked shots since Manute Bol in 1984-85. 

🏀 29.7

Wembanyama, remember, averaged 21.4 points, 10.6 rebounds and 3.6 blocks per game as a Spurs rookie ... making him the first player in league history to ever hit those benchmarks in less than 30 minutes per game.