Free throw shooting (still) never better
Free throw shooting (still) never better
And that's just one of the standout elements of a season marked by extreme offense
If you like offense, this was your kind of season.
The NBA’s 2022-23 campaign, in terms of the regular season, is down to its final three days and the last 29 games they contain.
If form holds based on what we’ve seen through the first 170 days and 1,201 games, this one will be remembered for the unending siege that NBA defenses faced.
Because …
🏀 Teams entered Friday’s play averaging 114.7 points per game … even though they’re actually attempting one fewer 3-pointer per game (34.2) than they did last season (35.2). That’s the highest scoring figure leaguewide since the first full season of my life in 1969-70 (116.7). There were 14 teams in the league back then.
🏀 What we wrote about in December still holds: This is the greatest season in the history of NBA free-throw shooting. The league average at the line has held over the past three-plus months and still sits at a robust 78.2%. That figure has never been higher than 77.8% in 2020-21, which was one of only six previous seasons in the 77s.
🏀 There are 45 qualified scorers averaging at least 20 points per game this season, with Orlando’s Rookie of the Year favorite Paolo Banchero right at 20.0 PPG. The league’s previous single-season high was 31.
🏀 Philadelphia’s Joel Embiid, Dallas’ Luka Dončić, Portland’s Damian Lillard, Oklahoma City’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo and Boston’s Jayson Tatum are all averaging at least 30 points per game. That sextet has matched the single-season high for players in the 30s.
🏀 There have been 26 games this season in which an NBA player has scored at least 50 points, topped by the 71-point games posted by Cleveland’s Donovan Mitchell (in overtime) and Portland’s Damian Lillard. The previous record for 50-point games in a season that did not feature Wilt Chamberlain was 23 (2019-20).
🏀 Players have scored at least 40 points an even 200 times this season. The single-season record was a mere 137 in 2018-19.
🏀 A good one from Mavericks television play-by-play voice Mark Followill: Teams leaguewide are shooting 47.5% from the field — tops since 1989-90 (47.6%) when there were more big men operating near the basket.
🏀 Remember when Mike Brown and Tom Thibodeau were known as defensive coaches? Brown’s Kings (119.0 points per 100 possessions) and Thibodeau’s Knicks (116.8) sport the top-ranked and fifth-ranked offenses in the league, respectively.
How to explain all this?
Teams are playing smaller than ever and practicing less than ever before. That means fewer rim protectors and less defensive cohesion at a time that teams field more players classified as shooters than ever before and make sure their best players touch the ball a lot.
Thirteen players in the league have a usage rate in the 30s, which reflects the percentage of a team’s plays any given player was involved with that result in a shot, free-throw attempt or turnover.
Which leads to this pressing question:
A warning no matter how you answered that: History says that the numbers won’t stay this gaudy once the postseason begins. ESPN Stats & Information reported this week that scoring rates from the regular season to the playoffs have not risen since 1984-85 … with teams’ playoff scoring averages dropping by six points last season.
I really could of answered the poll both ways depending on various points during the season.
The load management issue needs to be addressed by the league and the players. I only go to a small amount of games in person, but this affects me as a League Pass subscriber. You see an interesting game on the schedule and plan on watching that when you get home from work that night, only to find one or both teams are impacted by key players sitting out. I then choose to watch or do something else instead. The more times this happens, other habits start to get formed and I become less connected to the NBA as a fan.
Also, they need to make League Pass better. You shouldn’t have to sit through a 30 second advert as a paid subscriber to watch a game or replay. That doesn’t even happen on You Tube.
These little things all add up to make an avid fan lose interest.
I agree with most of the commenters that the trend toward greater offense has gone too far. When 40 point games are no longer special, there is to me a loss of excitement. Also, while others may see things differently, I have always liked the fact that basketball results have tended not to be random, as they are for example in baseball, where you can hit the ball hard or make good pitches and still get beat; generally in basketball the team that plays better on both sides of the ball in a particular game will win that game. Currently, though, a flurry of three pointers that hit at an above-average rate can overcome big deficits and poor overall play. Some folks might find that exciting, but to me that’s like flipping coins, which I don’t find appealing. But I agree with you, Marc, that artificially limiting the number of three-pointers seems crazy. How about keeping the three point line at a uniform distance, thereby effectively eliminating the corner three?
Also, I was intrigued by the suggestion a few years ago by an analyst on (I think) The Athletic that all shooting fouls be awarded only two shots; given the high success rate of free throw attempts, the expected value of three free throws compared to the expected value of a three point attempt is out of whack with the expected value of two free throws vs. the expected value of a two point attempt. What are your thoughts on this, Marc?