28 Comments

oh also.....i cannot defend this but i have a hunch the wizards are going to way outperform expectations. Tyus Jones baybee. But more...they are playing with house money. Nothing to lose.

Expand full comment

always great. But....im gonna say take the under on boston and phoenix. Im surprised everyone keeps touting the Suns. First, KD will get hurt. Second, even if he doesn't, am I alone in noticing how much he has declined? And Boston traded the defensive soul of the team .: Smart, Time Lord and grant williams. Add that to coach joe and i dont see anything like a champion. Im picking miami in the east. Lakers are maybe an 8 seed.... maybe. i pick dallas fourth actually. Who is better? oh, wait, phoenix. Who else? GS? Not to my eyes . Kings maybe....who else? Clippers are impossible to rank. Memphis....depending the Ja issue. Denver is 1'....but who is second? I just dont buy the Suns guys. New Orleans is the most injured team in the NBA the last few years. So....there is that. In the east atlanta might be the sleeper. I trust snyder knows how to minimize the problems of Trae on D. I think i trust him. Utah ...take the over . take the over on Raps. But i know....im in a distinct minority in most of this.

Expand full comment
author

In my Substack life, I have always posted Power Rankings on a Tuesday. Switched things up this season and posted the first batch of rankings on a Monday ... but I had Tuesday in yesterday's headline and didn't notice it until five minutes ago.

Aging is hard, y'all ...

Expand full comment
Oct 24, 2023Liked by Marc Stein

YEEAAAHHH! You know the NBA Season has officially started when the "The Committee of One" has the first set of Power Rankings out there. Totally agree with the Top 4 and then, to me, there is a definite drop in expectations of the rest of the top 10.

Most surprising (but I can't really argue against it): Mavs at 20. I feel like they were just the league darlings like 5 minutes ago with Luka and Brunson.

I don't think OKC sniffs 50 wins, I think they max out in the low 40s, West is just too deep.

Bet the over on SA wins: I think they get to 30-32.

Basketball is back baby!

Expand full comment

It's been years since I've signed up for an NBA package. Used to get League Pass for years. Just kind of lost interest, and got way into football. Now... I'm seriously considering a return, but there is so much out there. Of course, not one team TV broadcast schedule, listing every game, and who is broadcasting, so I just spent 30 minutes and made my own. All because of YOU, Stein!!!

Expand full comment

Jazz ranking is off. No way they are that low. I’d put them at 15-16

Expand full comment
author

15 or 16?? The Jazz? Of Utah?

Expand full comment

The very ones. Bookmark this and let’s circle back ;-)

Expand full comment
Oct 23, 2023Liked by Marc Stein

Thanks to the committee, Marc. My only quibble - I think Phoenix should be at 6.

People overrated Phoenix when KD arrived. Haynes said they had to be the title favorites, which was premature. But they have lost depth and became more injury prone. Nurkic for Ayton just added to the injuries. And how do you maximize a core with three guys whose games are based on their shooting? There’s significant redundancy in the core. All three can’t shoot the ball every possession. Then factor in the health and missed games, it’s hard to see this team sustaining success all season. Is there really a reason to think they’re better than last year? And they have no trade assets to improve mid-season.

Anyway, thanks for the rankings!

Expand full comment
Oct 23, 2023Liked by Marc Stein

I have a hard time putting the Mavs in the bottom

third of the league at this point, but I don’t have a good enough reason to argue. I’d rather be the underdogs, anyway. Good luck to the teams who went all in with trades this summer.

Expand full comment
founding

Non-Trae Hawks comment: I did note you had Atlanta 7th in the East, just outside the 4-6 range my feathered-covered glasses see the good guys, but a fair/solid placement. They will have to prove they are better than the Cavs/Knicks this season, as it should be. Let's get this season started!

Expand full comment
author

Are those glasses also red frames like Quin’s?

Expand full comment
founding

Definitely - a Sir Elton John meets Quin Snyder style glasses experience

Expand full comment

Very comfortable with the Knicks. I love that team. Playing inspired basketball, grinding on the court. They sure lack the ceiling to really push for a deep run as currently constructed, but this is way more fun than the last 20 years (except for the Kidd/Anthony led conference semifinal team)

Expand full comment

Seeing the Mavericks so far down the list is startling. I won’t say you’ve gotten it incorrect, but I sure hope they prove you wrong!

Expand full comment
author

I wish I didn't have to tack on this explainer, because I feel like I've spelled out how I do this for two decades, but since you asked about Dallas and since I've seen some complaints elsewhere: Putting the Mavericks at 20 doesn't mean that I think No. 18 Indiana and No. 19 Orlando are "better." Those teams landed higher because they're in the East and have a better shot at a playoff spot than Dallas does as the season begins. Also: Dallas dropped a spot or two because its preseason trip was so long (and painful).

Expand full comment
Oct 23, 2023Liked by Marc Stein

Mark to be clear- I’m not complaining or criticizing; it’s more wild to me after an off season where the Mavs improved their roster and with two all stars in Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving that the consensus would be we are 11th in our conference in potential going into the season. Feels like as good as many Mavs fans would say the off season was compared to recent years...we still aren’t there yet.

Expand full comment

List looks pretty good, overall, and a lot of the 'lower' rankings for certain teams speaks to the growing depth of the league, as there's really a huge tier of 'playoff potential' teams that runs from around the 9-24 range.

As a Dubs fan, I will say that right now, the vibes coming into this season are so much better than a year ago. Coming into the season a year ago, they had the championship hangover (which seemed to linger a lot longer than usual) the Tokyo trip (which also slowed them down), and obviously the punch (which just completely discombobulated their team chemistry) all weighing on them, and they got out to a slow start, including 0-9 on the road before they got their first road win.

If the Warriors get out to a 2-0 start this year, which means they beat Phoenix at home on opening night (KD's return night, at long last, and CP3's revenge game) and get a victory in Sacramento on the road, that will say a lot about how this team will look this year, imo. It'll be a challenge without Draymond, who has still not been cleared to play 5x5, but it likely means someone else (perhaps Kuminga?) shows out.

I do think the Warriors, like the Lakers, might be favored over Phoenix in the playoffs, and that's because right now, looking at Phoenix, I don't see how they defend consistently in a 7 game playoff series. They are built to be a potential power-house in the regular season, with nice depth and a lot of fire power. But who are their dirty-work defensive players? Okogie? Gordon? Little? Metu? .. they lack a player like Looney or PJ Tucker, let alone anybody like Bam or Draymond or AD. It'll be interesting to see if anyone emerges, but that's their main flaw, right now.

Expand full comment
author

The Warriors should have a much better bench. I didn't include that in my rankings comment and I should have. That SHOULD help them.

Expand full comment
founding

It is funny to me how SGA is "is universally regarded as one of the league's 10 best players" but Trae Young, after putting up the numbers, as noted, and getting to a conference finals and to the playoffs overall the last three seasons, still has to prove himself.

Expand full comment

Different type of 'proving' themselves. Young generates stats (inefficiently at times, but he is a bucket and a solid distributor, as well), but, outside of that surprising run to the EC finals (helped in large part by the Philly/Simmons implosion), his teams have underwhelmed on their initial expectations for two years in a row, and, of course, his limitations become more glaring when they are put under scrutiny.

Michael Jordan heard the catcalls on having to 'prove himself' despite putting up astronomical stats and having a level of success in the playoffs, just not the level people expected given his stature as the 'best' player in the league. Not saying Trae is MJ, but.. when you are the high usage focal point of a team and putting up big stats, the expectations shift.

SGA is still ascending. You can bet that now, given his emergence as a top-tier player last year, that the scrutiny will be higher on him, as well. If OKC fails to make the playoffs this year, who do you think will shoulder the majority of the criticism? Coaching, for sure, but after that.. SGA's warts will be nit-picked, too.

Expand full comment
founding

Great comment, Yato! I would argue that Trae gets dinged for the team's perceived underwhelming, but I never see the Hawks higher than 16 in these preseason rankings, nor predicted for any kind of greatness, yet Trae gets the Hawks to the playoffs every year. Doesn't reconcile to me.

Expand full comment
author

Nothing gets past Walker ... #eventhehawks

Expand full comment
founding

True! But, you have to admit, there's something amiss there. He put up 48/7/11 in his first conference final game, on the road, in Milwaukee. He carried the Hawks to the playoffs the last two seasons. His bar is way higher than other young players who are accepted for great without even close to Trae's resume.

Expand full comment
author

I agree with lots of what Yato wrote above AND we also have to factor in the reality that the past two Hawks seasons have not just fallen well short of the ECF standard but were turmoil-filled.

Expand full comment
founding

Points well taken, but even after that run, the Hawks weren't expected to return to the ECF in any preseason prognostications, much like this year, over the last three preseasons. Still, things are what they are, maybe it is not fair, but I want to point that Trae Young is certainly unique in that his standard is the ECF, which he already accomplished, in order to prove himself, whereas someone like SGA does not.

Expand full comment

To no one's surprise, I got The Lakers leading next month's power rankings.

We started off 2-10 last year, so anything is better than that. But, I'm hoping for better than just 'better'...

Give me dominating wins that lead to less minutes for our stars...need to start off right so we're not playing catch-up the rest of the season... 🥴🤞🏽

Expand full comment
author

Also to no one's surprise: You were the first commenter ...

Expand full comment