The arrival of a new year is always a natural time to uncork a fresh round of predictions, but Substack is a platform that enables me to do things differently than I've done them in the past.
So ...
Instead of me publishing one man’s list of 2022 proclamations that the Warriors will win it all ... or that the Lakers will miss the playoffs ... or that the Sixers will hold off on trading Ben Simmons until after the season ... let's make this more inclusive. Let’s do this together.
Make your bold NBA predictions for 2022 in the thread below so we can all react to them.
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I’m a fan of his actually. But the Knicks aren’t where they want to be and if they want to be in the Lillard, Simmons, or Beal discussion, he is going to be a part of any deal
The East from top to bottom being better than the West won't be a one-time blip, even if players from the West (e.g. Leonard and Murray) return strongly after injuries or Simmons gets traded to the West.
Trailblazers and Lillard finally admit he has wanted to be traded this whole time and end the charade at deadline after they plummet to worst record in conference. Morey gets his white whale for Simmons, 2 1sts, 1 swap and J Springer.
It's the trade that should happen -- speaking only about Dame for Simmons; not all the other pieces that have to be hashed out -- but Portland has been adamant it won't even be considered in-season. Let's see if they hold firm for 5-6 more weeks.
They would have to think they would get a better deal in the off-season and risk Morey moving Simmons somewhere else. Is there a better young player that will be available?
The Nets come to their senses and get rid of the disaster otherwise known as Kyrie Irving....and spend their money on someone who does not want a part time gig.
TOR gets 2 2nd rd picks + 2025 1st + THJ declining deal and Powell with 1 year left goes home + get out of Siakam’s contract. Mavs add co-2nd star in Siakam
The league permanently expands rosters to 20 players and allows 7 2-way players to account for the extra bodies added due to covid. 2way players designated 16-20 don't count towards salary cap and can only make a relative minimum.
The top of the east keeps widening giving everybody in the top 10 a chance.
The west top teams continue to shrink as the warriors emerge as the only true team of the bunch.
Mavs beat the jazz in the first round behind KP and Luka averaging a combined 70-25-15
Lakers and clippers end up in the playin tournament and the wolves make it through over both of them.
Pop retires
Gilbert arenas and stephon marbury sign 10 days (ok that one is a joke)
Wiz cave and Beal for Simmons happens. Sixers still lose in the first round because Embiid is hurt… to the Wiz. Simmons averages 16/12/14 in the series.
Mavs trade KP for Simmons. Simmons makes a late season case for MVP and carries the Mavs (along with Luka, of course) to their first playoff series victory since 2011. I'm dreaming for a WCF victory, but I don't want to get TOO ahead of myself.
Curry wins MVP, the title and Finals MVP, rounding out a resume that makes him the greatest of all time 6'3 and under and only needing to finish his career for a top-10 all-time resume. But... people will still gripe that he only has one finals MVP because we still don't understand dominance from someone of his height in this league.
Pels will try to put injury protections in Zion’s extension, Zion will get angry and threaten a trade demand. Pels will cave, Zion will get a very player friendly extension and play a total of 100 games through the life of the extension. Pels won’t make the playoffs in any season Zion is on the books.
The Mavs end up matched up with the Warriors in the first round, and in an inspirational showing, the Mavs completely dominate the Warriors on their way to the WCFs. The Mavs hand out (ironic) WE BELIEVE shirts in the home clincher Game 6
Lead by DJ, the Spurs make the playin as the last seed and behind their stellar D they grab the 8 seed. They then proceed to get destroyed by the Warriors in 4.
at the pick of their greatness, Spurs couldn't get anyone to play there other than a past-his-time Finley or past-their time in Aldridge case. Now their only asset is Pop, would you trade DJ for Simmons? What would be the logic there?
Daryl Morey reminds us all exactly how great he is, and has a Big 3 for the Sixers that doesn't include Ben Simmons or Tobias Harris. Both are traded for pieces that make more sense around Embiid and the Sixers are once again just as feared as Brooklyn and Milwaukee in the east. He does this while keeping Maxey and Curry in the fold as well.
Klay is going to perform worse in WAR than his actual replacement in the line up. Love my Warriors and so excited for Klay's return, but bracing myself for the statistical guarantee of his disappointing performance.
Bucks season ticket holder. Excited to see how Bulls vs Bucks plays out in the upcoming four regular season matchups. As of now, if both teams fully healthy, I would take Bucks in a playoff series against Bulls simply because Bucks would have best player on the court.
Klay returns and by the playoffs is just as good as he was when we last saw him. The Warriors win the championship and Curry wins his 3rd MVP and first Finals MVP
The rule that unvaccinated visitors can play in the same arena where unvaccinated home players can’t will continue to be dumb and make no scientific or medical sense at all - says an internet rando who thinks the vaccines are/were a minor miracle and has had more than enough Kyrie antics to last a lifetime.
I mean kinda yeah, but I’m actually hoping my “prediction” will be wrong and things will get more consistent in one direction or another at some point. Foolish hope I know :)
Fred VanVleet gets snubbed as an All Star, but leads the Raptors to the 6th seed in the east. They beat Miami in the first round before losing to Brooklyn in round 2. Milwaukee repeats.
The Heat will get healthy and gel and their experience and depth, with sixth man of the year Herro, and Lowry and Butler will lead them back to the nba finals.
Celtics will make a few insignificant moves at the trade deadline (Schroder and maybe Horford out), bumble their way to the play-in game where they get eliminated, then proclaim that they're optimistic for next season.
The Spurs will announce an extension for coach Pop - and will deal this years 1st, along with the protected Bulls pick for a coveted big man… making the Spurs a playoff team (top 4 in the West) next season. Murray will be an MVP candidate next season!
- The ref shortage gets just critical enough by month's that a week or two of games are postponed. And then the governors, players, and refs spend the rest of the season trying to reschedule the games without delaying the playoffs. A compromise is reached, and the honest negotiations make MLB look even more dysfunctional.
- One of the Brooklyn Big Three will get hurt and they will continue not playing together in the regular season, even as Kyrie continues not being allowed to play at home. They are good enough that they can enter the playoffs without any big issues, but no other teams are really scared of them.
- The Knicks make a couple of trades that suggest they are giving up on the current team structure, but not doing a teardown. They accept they aren't going to make the playoffs, and turn their attention to that big trade at last. But don't make it.
- 2021 rematch in the finals.
- LeBron begins to hint he's ready to retire, but backs off from it several times.
Every sportswriter and executive who disparaged DeMarvelous DeRozan signing with the Bulls will resign their jobs and move into fields where predictions aren’t necessary. Carpet installation, for instance.
DDR is one of the biggest misfires I can remember from the NBA sports writing community. EVERYONE seemed to be so down on his signing. Most, if not all, will point to his contract as the main reason for their negative sentiments.
But at 26 million this season (44th highest salary in 2021-22), he has been a relative bargain for a player that has a chance to make at least 2nd team All-NBA.
In many ways, he reminds me of this year’s ‘Julius Randle.’ He is helping lead his team to an unexpected wave of success, while hitting tough shots when his team needs them the most.
As someone who watched a lot of Spurs games living in Texas, this makes me happy to see. He was a bedrock for those teams and really evolved as a player his 3 years there. It just went unnoticed due to their record and players around him. Kudos to Demar!!!
I think it was two things. The fact that it was a three-year deal for more than $80 million, rather than the per-year salary, that led to skepticism. Also fit: Did the Bulls really have room for another ball-dominant player after acquiring Lonzo Ball first? Kudos to the Bulls for believing in what they believed and swinging big and counting on talented players to find their respective niches. I would also just push back here: Was it really ONLY sportswriters and rival teams that questioned this move? Every Bulls fan was certain in August that this would work out as well as it has?
For nba predictions, nba betting lines, and
nba expert picks, I would suggest Betting Sites Ranking at https://www.bettingsitesranking.com/nba-betting/. Good luck!
The cavaliers and grizzlies will both win a playoff series
RJ Barrett is not a Knick by 2023
Tough crowd ...
I’m a fan of his actually. But the Knicks aren’t where they want to be and if they want to be in the Lillard, Simmons, or Beal discussion, he is going to be a part of any deal
The East from top to bottom being better than the West won't be a one-time blip, even if players from the West (e.g. Leonard and Murray) return strongly after injuries or Simmons gets traded to the West.
Good one I need to examine further ...
Great thread Marc!
Predictions have been really, really strong.
Trailblazers and Lillard finally admit he has wanted to be traded this whole time and end the charade at deadline after they plummet to worst record in conference. Morey gets his white whale for Simmons, 2 1sts, 1 swap and J Springer.
It's the trade that should happen -- speaking only about Dame for Simmons; not all the other pieces that have to be hashed out -- but Portland has been adamant it won't even be considered in-season. Let's see if they hold firm for 5-6 more weeks.
They would have to think they would get a better deal in the off-season and risk Morey moving Simmons somewhere else. Is there a better young player that will be available?
Lebron injured in March; misses the rest of the season. Timberwolves make the playoffs. Cleveland goes to the Eastern Conference finals.
I don't like to predict injuries. The other two ... bold but both good.
Philly with trade Simmons and Seth Curry for Kyrie.
Can't see it. Philadelphia needs a trade that provides more certainty.
The Nets come to their senses and get rid of the disaster otherwise known as Kyrie Irving....and spend their money on someone who does not want a part time gig.
Guess you're not expecting a triumphant return in Indy then on Wednesday night?
It would be nice if they (the nets) came to their senses now, but I don't think it is very likely....
Griffin cashes in his draft capital to make the play in.
CHI goes all in and trades Williams for Grant.
CHA fixes C position by trading Washington for Turner.
SAC gets Simmons
MEM gets Brown
TRADES! Deadline is in less than 40 days ...
TOR gets 2 2nd rd picks + 2025 1st + THJ declining deal and Powell with 1 year left goes home + get out of Siakam’s contract. Mavs add co-2nd star in Siakam
Don't see it but at least it's a fake trade I hadn't seen before.
Raptors finally healthy and whole surprise in the playoffs losing to Milwaukee in the Eastern finals.
Does this mean I will be able to come back to Toronto come playoff time? Miss it!
sadly you will still need to test negative to enter the country but yes, i believe fans will be back in the arena
Ok, a real prediction this time.
The league permanently expands rosters to 20 players and allows 7 2-way players to account for the extra bodies added due to covid. 2way players designated 16-20 don't count towards salary cap and can only make a relative minimum.
The top of the east keeps widening giving everybody in the top 10 a chance.
The west top teams continue to shrink as the warriors emerge as the only true team of the bunch.
Mavs beat the jazz in the first round behind KP and Luka averaging a combined 70-25-15
Lakers and clippers end up in the playin tournament and the wolves make it through over both of them.
Pop retires
Gilbert arenas and stephon marbury sign 10 days (ok that one is a joke)
Wasn't this five real predictions?
I'm just a giver, Mark
Franz Wagner will be rookie of the year.
He's definitely in the conversation now!
1. Andrew Wiggins makes his first All-Star game;
2. Ben Simmons is traded for Jaylen Brown, with Philly having to add more;
3. The Lakers won't make it out of the play-in tournament.
All very defensible forecasts ...
Wiz cave and Beal for Simmons happens. Sixers still lose in the first round because Embiid is hurt… to the Wiz. Simmons averages 16/12/14 in the series.
You're on a roll ... enjoyed this one.
Yeah. I decided to just email you a slew of other questions I have. Haha. Relatively new subscriber here. I enjoy your work! Thanks.
They will be utilized in the next mailbag.
Mavs trade KP for Simmons. Simmons makes a late season case for MVP and carries the Mavs (along with Luka, of course) to their first playoff series victory since 2011. I'm dreaming for a WCF victory, but I don't want to get TOO ahead of myself.
All sounds promising for Dallas except that Philly ain't trading Simmons for KP. Sorry ...
Curry wins MVP, the title and Finals MVP, rounding out a resume that makes him the greatest of all time 6'3 and under and only needing to finish his career for a top-10 all-time resume. But... people will still gripe that he only has one finals MVP because we still don't understand dominance from someone of his height in this league.
He hushed a lot of haters last season and is hushing more this season.
Pels will try to put injury protections in Zion’s extension, Zion will get angry and threaten a trade demand. Pels will cave, Zion will get a very player friendly extension and play a total of 100 games through the life of the extension. Pels won’t make the playoffs in any season Zion is on the books.
Sadly not hard to imagine any of this ... is it?
Lakers will finish in the fifth spot in the west and beat the Griz in the first round.
I suspect no one will want to see the Lakers in the first round for as much as we bash them.
The Mavs end up matched up with the Warriors in the first round, and in an inspirational showing, the Mavs completely dominate the Warriors on their way to the WCFs. The Mavs hand out (ironic) WE BELIEVE shirts in the home clincher Game 6
Another good one for the humor. It won't happen but if it did the WE BELIEVE t-shirt idea is gold.
Lead by DJ, the Spurs make the playin as the last seed and behind their stellar D they grab the 8 seed. They then proceed to get destroyed by the Warriors in 4.
The Dejounte love emanating from the Alamo City is tangible ...
at the pick of their greatness, Spurs couldn't get anyone to play there other than a past-his-time Finley or past-their time in Aldridge case. Now their only asset is Pop, would you trade DJ for Simmons? What would be the logic there?
Daryl Morey reminds us all exactly how great he is, and has a Big 3 for the Sixers that doesn't include Ben Simmons or Tobias Harris. Both are traded for pieces that make more sense around Embiid and the Sixers are once again just as feared as Brooklyn and Milwaukee in the east. He does this while keeping Maxey and Curry in the fold as well.
Steph wins MVP, Warriors finish with best RS record, but don't make it to the Finals, round out my hedging Warriors-themed picks
Klay is going to perform worse in WAR than his actual replacement in the line up. Love my Warriors and so excited for Klay's return, but bracing myself for the statistical guarantee of his disappointing performance.
No COVID disruptions in the Playoffs. Maybe this is more of a “wish” than a prediction.
Zion isn’t on the Pelicans on January 1, 2023.
Let's all wish it!
As for Zion ...
Bulls keep rolling, trade for Jerami Grant, earn the No. 1 seed, and reach the conference finals
Krish causing his usual ruckus ...
Who will the Bulls lose to in the conference finals?
Brooklyn wins the East. They beat the Bucks in round 2.
If Brooklyn wins the East, then how to Bulls earn number one seed?
I phrased this all poorly. Bulls No. 1 seed, Nets No. 2, Bucks 3. Nets beat Bucks in round 2 and then Bulls in EC Finals.
Bucks season ticket holder. Excited to see how Bulls vs Bucks plays out in the upcoming four regular season matchups. As of now, if both teams fully healthy, I would take Bucks in a playoff series against Bulls simply because Bucks would have best player on the court.
I'm a Bucks fan and I hope you're right!! (I set aside my fandom when making predictions, especially painful ones)
Ja Morant finishes in the top 10 in MVP voting while Taylor Jenkins finishes top 5 in Coach of the Year voting as Grizz finish top 4 in West
Jenkins for sure if Memphis avoids a second-half dip ...
Klay returns and by the playoffs is just as good as he was when we last saw him. The Warriors win the championship and Curry wins his 3rd MVP and first Finals MVP
The thought that scares everyone in the West.
The Cavs will finish as a Top 3 seed in the East with Rondo
I think I would rather have Goodwin in the Rubio role than Rondo.
BOLD ... and you might be talking me into it.
Rondo wearing #1, serious Boobie Gibson vibes
The rule that unvaccinated visitors can play in the same arena where unvaccinated home players can’t will continue to be dumb and make no scientific or medical sense at all - says an internet rando who thinks the vaccines are/were a minor miracle and has had more than enough Kyrie antics to last a lifetime.
Not a prediction ... but point made.
I mean kinda yeah, but I’m actually hoping my “prediction” will be wrong and things will get more consistent in one direction or another at some point. Foolish hope I know :)
The 76ers trade Simmons to the Hornets for a package revolved around Gordon Hayward, and the Hornets lose in the Conference Finals
Sorry, Joe. Don't see it ...
The Celtics and the Mavs lose in their respective play in games and Jaylen Brown gets traded for Kristaps Porzingis in the offseason
Spicy!
Fred VanVleet gets snubbed as an All Star, but leads the Raptors to the 6th seed in the east. They beat Miami in the first round before losing to Brooklyn in round 2. Milwaukee repeats.
Reasonable and feasible ...
Bojan Bogdanovic finals MVP.
Thank you I needed that!
Possibly, again, a touch too bold.
The Heat will get healthy and gel and their experience and depth, with sixth man of the year Herro, and Lowry and Butler will lead them back to the nba finals.
They can beat out Milwaukee AND Brooklyn?
Won’t have to. Will get top seed and only face one of them in east finals
Celtics will make a few insignificant moves at the trade deadline (Schroder and maybe Horford out), bumble their way to the play-in game where they get eliminated, then proclaim that they're optimistic for next season.
I laughed ...
I omitted a giant sigh at the end. It was implied.
The Spurs will announce an extension for coach Pop - and will deal this years 1st, along with the protected Bulls pick for a coveted big man… making the Spurs a playoff team (top 4 in the West) next season. Murray will be an MVP candidate next season!
Too much, Eloy. I do think Pop sticks around for one more season at least ... but the Spurs gotta get Dejounte to the All-Star Game first.
James Harden will leave the Nets and will find a way to make it back home to play for either the Lakers or Clippers
Bold for sure. Don't see it coming true, but definitely bold.
- The ref shortage gets just critical enough by month's that a week or two of games are postponed. And then the governors, players, and refs spend the rest of the season trying to reschedule the games without delaying the playoffs. A compromise is reached, and the honest negotiations make MLB look even more dysfunctional.
- One of the Brooklyn Big Three will get hurt and they will continue not playing together in the regular season, even as Kyrie continues not being allowed to play at home. They are good enough that they can enter the playoffs without any big issues, but no other teams are really scared of them.
- The Knicks make a couple of trades that suggest they are giving up on the current team structure, but not doing a teardown. They accept they aren't going to make the playoffs, and turn their attention to that big trade at last. But don't make it.
- 2021 rematch in the finals.
- LeBron begins to hint he's ready to retire, but backs off from it several times.
Good volume. Remind me to hit you up before I write my next predictions column.
I want to shock the world and say the Lakers will win the NBA Title, but that’s a stretch too far…😵
I will go so far as proclaiming that they will be western conference finalists, however.
I believe they will be a 6th seed and their path to get there will be Utah, PHX, and then Golden State in the WCF…
Here’s hoping for relatively good health for everyone the rest of the season. 🤞🏽
Greenroom Mamba ... getting us off to a saucy start.
Every sportswriter and executive who disparaged DeMarvelous DeRozan signing with the Bulls will resign their jobs and move into fields where predictions aren’t necessary. Carpet installation, for instance.
DDR is one of the biggest misfires I can remember from the NBA sports writing community. EVERYONE seemed to be so down on his signing. Most, if not all, will point to his contract as the main reason for their negative sentiments.
But at 26 million this season (44th highest salary in 2021-22), he has been a relative bargain for a player that has a chance to make at least 2nd team All-NBA.
https://hoopshype.com/salaries/players/
In many ways, he reminds me of this year’s ‘Julius Randle.’ He is helping lead his team to an unexpected wave of success, while hitting tough shots when his team needs them the most.
As someone who watched a lot of Spurs games living in Texas, this makes me happy to see. He was a bedrock for those teams and really evolved as a player his 3 years there. It just went unnoticed due to their record and players around him. Kudos to Demar!!!
I think it was two things. The fact that it was a three-year deal for more than $80 million, rather than the per-year salary, that led to skepticism. Also fit: Did the Bulls really have room for another ball-dominant player after acquiring Lonzo Ball first? Kudos to the Bulls for believing in what they believed and swinging big and counting on talented players to find their respective niches. I would also just push back here: Was it really ONLY sportswriters and rival teams that questioned this move? Every Bulls fan was certain in August that this would work out as well as it has?
Understand the sentiment ... but if getting every prediction right was a sportswriting requirement wouldn't we all just go to Vegas and get rich?
Ha. Just reaching for the joke. Glad predictions aren’t part of my livelihood.