Reacting to the first 48 hours (and change) of the NBA's change-filled free agency

We have some things to say in the Tuesday Newsletter Extravaganza ... which was indeed published when it was still Tuesday on the West Coast

Frequent readers surely noted (and hopefully understood) that This Week In Basketball did not run in its usual Monday slot.

Monday was July 1 and, with so much free agent chaos bubbling already after a Draft Week that was plenty wild in its own right, there simply wasn't time to assemble our trademark weekly review. (I also presumed that the appetite to read anything other than free agency developments would be close to nil.)

TWIB will be back next Monday in its classic form and, to make up for it, we're leading off the Tuesday Newsletter Extravaganza with our first slew of reactions to the many trade, draft and free agency machinations witnessed over the past week-plus … employing our trusty I’m pretty sure construct frequently utilized in TWIB compilations.

🏀 I'm pretty sure that the Thunder won the original Paul George-to-the-Clippers trade: Dealing PG-13 to the 213 brought back five future first-round picks, two pick swaps and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Five years later, Oklahoma City also happens to be having a better offseason than any team in the West, adding Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein to its already deep squad.

🏀 I'm pretty sure that the Clippers believe it when they tell themselves that they don't regret taking the swing on George. Because, remember, trading for PG-13 clinched the signing of Kawhi Leonard, too, which certainly helps justify the haul surrendered. The Clippers' past five seasons, given that they only won three playoff rounds in that half-decade, will be recorded as a failure ... but it's likewise true that they did go for it. Which is quite preferable to the alternative. I suspect, for starters, that Nuggets fans who just watched Bruce Brown and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope sign elsewhere in back-to-back summers without compensation are envious. (PS — My BlackBerry KEY2 autocorrect loves to change Kentavious to envious even though it should really know KCP by now.)

🏀 I'm pretty sure that Boston, New York and Philadelphia will dominate NBA conversation next season like those Northeast neighbors never have before as a trio. All three teams last won 50 games in a season way back in 1980-81 … when coverage of #thisleague was a lot different. They should all get there next season.

🏀 I'm pretty sure that George, for as thrilled as the 76ers must be to land the summer's most highly rated free agent via cap space they’ve plotted to have for a year, is headed for a cauldron of playoff pressure in Philly that he doesn't fully grasp yet. It's one of the major question marks that will be spawned by this offseason: How will George cope with that heat?

NBA free agency graphic from Fadeaway World.

🏀 I'm pretty sure that the Bucks and especially the Heat are feeling a fair amount of pressure themselves right now. The East's top three suddenly looks like it deserves a zip code of its own. The Magic also threaten to join Indiana as a prime threat to crack the East's top four after adding Caldwell-Pope on a pretty attractive deal.

🏀 I'm pretty sure that you've noticed how many marquee teams in the West (Clippers, Warriors, Lakers, Nuggets) have been absolutely rocked by early developments in free agency, either through personnel losses or bids for difference-makers that fell short … or the general pain stemming from the most onerous team-building restrictions in league history for the NBA’s foremost spenders. The first hour of free agency Sunday was a total dud, with teams apparently trying to avoid tampering investigations with their delayed moves and after a handful of deals had been agreed to in late June thanks to new rules allowing negotiations between teams and their own free agents on the day after the NBA Finals wrapped up, but we've seen several significant players secure new addresses. It's been eventful. And painful for some heavy-hitters.

🏀 I'm pretty sure that we've failed the convey the full significance of Donovan Mitchell finally agreeing to his long-anticipated contract extension in Cleveland and Atlanta breaking up its Trae Young/Dejounte Murray backcourt at last with the trade that sent Murray to New Orleans. There has been so much focus on big-market teams that these major moves have been somewhat glossed over when we should be analyzing how huge it is for the Cavaliers to finally hush speculation that they would be forced to trade Mitchell in the near future … or the Hawks' difficult actions-over-words admissions that A) Murray was indeed easier to trade away than Young and B) recouping what they gave up to get Murray from San Antonio (three future first-round picks and a pick swap) was not possible. Promise to write more about this stuff.

🏀 I'm pretty sure that Klay Thompson participating in next February's 3-point contest at All-Star Weekend at Chase Center would be an emotional scene we'll never forget. Just one of the zillions of things I'm thinking about as I try — still without much success — to process the idea of Thompson leaving the Golden State Warriors to play in the city where I live and work. I've been writing about the possibility since last Friday and still can't quite believe it.

🏀 I'm pretty sure trades (or at least trade chatter) will keep The Transaction Game interesting for the rest of the month even though Chicago's DeMar DeRozan is the last high-profile free agent on the board whose future is undecided. (Does anyone think LeBron James is not re-signing with the Lakers?) Lauri Markkanen, Brandon Ingram, Zach LaVine, sign-and-trade scenarios involving DeRozan himself, Cam Johnson and Russell Westbrook ... we're on Trade Watch for all of them.

🏀 I'm pretty sure that the Bulls, who should have instantly lamented their inability to wrest even one future second-round pick from Oklahoma City in the Alex Caruso-for-Josh Giddey trade, regret it even more now when they desperately need additional draft compensation to attach to LaVine to increase the chances of finding a trade home for him.

---

The Stein Line is a reader-supported newsletter with both Free and Paid subscriptions available … and those who opt for the Paid edition are taking an active role in the reporting by providing vital assistance to bolster my independent coverage of #thisleague. Feel free to forward this post to family and friends interested in the NBA and please consider becoming a Paid subscriber to have full access to all of my posts.

As a reminder: Tuesday editions, on this and every Newsletter Tuesday, go out free to anyone who signs up, just as my Tuesday pieces did in their New York Times incarnation.

---

The hardware is here!

I mentioned last Tuesday how the mayhem of the NBA offseason, already underway soon after the NBA Finals, prevented me from attending the annual Associated Press Sports Editors summer convention to pick up the first first-place APSE plaque of my career.

Well …

It arrived in the mail recently and I couldn't resist sharing how it looks. This was the winning story:

---

Numbers Game

🏀 195

According to bookkeeping from my pal

Keith Smith

, there are 195 free agents this offseason in the NBA … 168 of them unrestricted free agents. That means roughly 36.1% of the league entered the offseason without a contract.

🏀 87

Oklahoma City's three-year, $87 million deal to sign Isaiah Hartenstein away from New York is the largest deal that the Thunder have ever bestowed on an external free agent. (The third season is reportedly non-guaranteed.)

🏀 4

The Clippers' Kawhi Leonard won four playoff series (and a championship) in his solitary season as a member of the Raptors … and only three in his next five seasons alongside Paul George with the Clippers.

🏀 2

According to a list compiled and distributed in an official Tuesday night email from the NBA, only two teams leaguewide were listed as having agreed to zero free agent additions, contract extensions or trades: Denver and Memphis.

🏀 11

Philadelphia's Joel Embiid, who turned 30 on March 16, is entering his 11th NBA season in 2024-25 but will do so with Paul George and Tyrese Maxey at his side.

🏀 44

No. 1 regret of my offseason so far: One trusted executive told me before the draft that Royce O’Neale would agree to a four-year, $44 million contract to return to Phoenix … but I didn’t go with the full forecast because I couldn’t confirm the dollar amount at the time. It was dead-on.

🏀 2024

The other main regret of my offseason so far. The 2024 European Championships are airing at this busy time and have been really hard for me to follow with so much NBA madness erupting daily … which wounds my soul. Ditto for the fact that Wimbledon has started, too. I attended the 2012 Olympic tennis tournament contested at Wimbledon but fear I will never actually make it to Wimby (rather than Wemby) for the tournament proper since it always conflicts with the draft and free agency.

🏀 12

Quite a summary of the Nets' last 12 years, capped by their looming trade of Mika Bridges to the Knicks, from my former ESPN teammate Zach Lowe:

🏀 1973

Can Bridges be the missing piece for a franchise that last won it all in 1973? The Nets have never won the NBA championship but won ABA titles in 1974 and 1976.

🏀 10

Ten current NBA franchises have never won the league's championship including the Nets. The other nine: Charlotte, Indiana, LA Clippers, Memphis, Minnesota, New Orleans, Orlando, Phoenix and Utah.

🏀 43

Will be paying special attention to No. 43 on the Warriors’ summer league roster after being made aware that it's Cal State Fullerton's Jackson Rowe. (PS — If you spot any other Fullerton alumni on summer league rosters please let me know.)

🏀 4

Four-time NBA All-Star Kemba Walker, who played last season in the EuroLeague with Monaco and turned 34 in May, announced Tuesday that he is "officially retiring from the game of basketball." Walker was beloved everywhere he played and I personally will always appreciate how available Walker and Donovan Mitchell made themselves for interviews as members of the 2019 U.S. World Cup team that finished a humbling seventh place in China. Interviews were extremely uncomfortable for everyone on that team — which placed lower in a major tournament than any other previous USA Basketball squad comprised of NBA players — but Walker and Mitchell always stepped up to answer questions.