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It was about a year ago at this time when I proclaimed that the 2021-22 season would be the revenge of the Leastern Conference in terms of broad interest. I was legitimately more curious about how the East ladder would shake out ... at least from the 1-to-10 range.
But that was then.
We still don't know if Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving will be starting the season with Brooklyn, but I'm not sure it matters for this exercise. Golden State just won its fourth championship in eight years and at least four teams in the West — Denver, Minnesota, New Orleans and especially the LA Clippers — should be much stronger than they were last season. The video of Kawhi Leonard that made the social media rounds this week is a good metaphor for what has already happened conference-wide this offseason.
I'm on the move as we speak, but I wanted to maintain our usual weekend connection with a reader thread in place of your trusty This Week In Basketball column. So let's get into it below.
Is the West b-a-c-k? Do you agree, at the very least, that the battle to claim a top-six slot and a guaranteed playoff berth will be tougher in the West than in the East? Can the Warriors find a way back to the NBA Finals, as formidable as they look again, with more good competition in the way?
Weigh in below on which conference race will be more compelling in 2022-23. I will be ducking into the file all weekend to react to your thoughts.
Thanks as always for excellent articles!!! You and Chad Ford have been my top 2 go-to's for all things NBA for 2 decades. I'm thankful you're still doing it.
I apologize it's length, but would like your opinion of this ESPN Trade Machine Deal I messed around with. I know it's unlikely, but it looks good in all aspects to me, for every team involved.
Brooklyn gets:
Tobias Harris
Donavan Mitchell
Jordan Clarkson
Philly gets:
Kevin Durant
LA Lakers get:
Kyrie Irving
Matisse Thybulle
Utah gets:
Russell Westbrook
Tyrese Maxey
Draft Picks from each team
-LAL gets Kyrie and rid of Russ…. Their main goal ALL summer…….
Plus a solid young SG in Thybulle, known for his solid D
-Utah gets Russ for 1 year & can do a sign & trade or let him walk for $44 million in cap space after 1 year….
They also get Maxey, a young stud G
They pull a big haul of 1st Rd Draft Picks, at least 1 from each team and a couple 2nd Rd Picks as well from Philly & LAL since they got the main guys they wanted in all this
-Philly is an instant title favorite in adding Durant….
They also get rid of Tobias’ heavy contract
-Brooklyn restocks with a Superstar in Mitchell and 2 rock solid Starters in Tobias & Jordan Clarkson, both good shooters to be running the wings with Ben Simmons at PG
I am a big fan of yours Mr. Stein and have been as subscriber since you started your newsletter on Substack. I want to be polite and so I hope you take my note as it is intended. I subscribe to several other substack newsletters including two basketball ones. Most of the writers I pay to subscribe to post four to five times a week AND sometimes add podcasts. I was hoping you would have a more regular and frequent schedule. Do you plan to increase your output?
Hi David. Appreciate the kind words. The frequency perhaps dips a bit in August, when things slow down leaguewide, but I have to point out: I averaged four posts a week during my first year of publishing here and as recently as June there were 24 posts from me in a 30-day month. And even though I've been gone for the past several days on an overseas trip, there will be at least three stories this week (I literally just sent out 2,700 words after coming home from the airport) to go with the four I published last week ... putting me at an average of 4.5 pieces per week through the first eight weeks of Year 2 for this Substack. If other writers are regularly delivering more than that to your inbox, my hat is off to them. PS -- I am still working on adding a podcast to all my Spotify Live audio sessions but putting that puzzle together has been more difficult than anticipated.
Maybe I have recency bias, or I just miss your newsletter. Mainly, I’m just pleased you will be back up to 4 or 5 posts soon. You have to admit, it must be nice to have a fan who wants MORE content from you! Thanks for the quick response. Oh, btw, at the end of the day, will the Knicks end up with Mitchell?😉
This is a threshold issue: which conference has more than the other when you draw the line in your power rankings/tiers.
My threshold is the playoffs: which conference's first team out is better than the first team in of the other conference. Most likely that will still be the Western Conference. That was the case for about 20 straight years after Jordan retired until the last two or three years, based on record alone. (When the 9th place West wasn't better by record than the 8th East, the West 9th was still better.)
While on the subject of depth, has anybody else taken up this argument: each conference in this year's play-in tournament represented the prototypical reasons for and against the tournament. The East teams got into the playoffs after loafing the whole regular season. The two teams in the Western Conference were very good at the end of the year but had a mediocre to horrible start to the year due to injuries, chemistry and identity issues.
Yes, the Cavs and Clippers would have deserved to get into the playoffs due to their whole regular season work, but they were both severely injured and would have been crushed in the playoffs more than their replacement teams were beaten.
The East won a few more games vs. the West last year. Even if there's a swing back, it won't be by many games. What matters in that competition, really, is how many bad teams a conference has. The West has Houston, Sac (maybe), OKC, Utah (maybe). The East has Detroit (again, maybe), DC, Knicks (mortal lock to be bad), Orlando. It's going to be tight.
I am not taking Denver, Dallas, Philly, Memphis or the Nets seriously as contenders until they prove otherwise. It's between Boston, Milwaukee, Warriors and maybe PHX.
The Kings might not make the playoffs, but I don't think we should put them in the Houston/OKC/Utah section. The Jazz aren't even there yet until they trade Mitchell.
What I love about that Kawhi photo is that it seems to be taken from a trainer's room. Fitting, considering how much time he's spent out of action. Get me impressed with an on-the-court photo, if you can
I’m not ready to buy anyone in the West but the Warriors & Grizzles as true title contenders as of now. In the East I think a case can be made for Philly to join Milwaukee & Boston, much as I hate to admit it.
Too many variables with both teams. Not sure I trust Denver’s supporting cast even when healthy, think they’re going to miss Monte Morris more than they realize. Huge drop off to Ish Smith. Penciling in the Clippers has never worked for anyone. Hope Kawhi & PG are healthy but they haven’t done anything as a group to warrant being named a contender. Memphis is going to miss Melton & Anderson but their trajectory under Ja/Jenkins gives me confidence they’ll be one of the last four standing.
2020 Bubble for the Nuggets. The issue with Porter is his health. The depth beyond the top 4 is still iffy, but if Murray and Jokic are staggered on the bench, then the Nuggets won't die in Jokic's bench minutes (and he won't have as big of on-off numbers).
I agree with most of the responses here -- the west is back, and definitely much stronger than the east, and should be stronger than they were last year, if the injuries are kept to a minimum.
But I think a more compelling story is the demise of these so-called super-teams that are for the most part player-initiated or player recruited: The Nets, 76ers, Clippers, and any team that LeBron James is on. I think it was divine justice that all 4 of these teams tanked last year. The Clippers were beset by injuries to be sure, but the other three were just not that good injuries or no injuries......and any team (I'm talking to you Lakers) that goes after Kyrie Irving, the world's greatest part time basketball player will be guilty of mismanagement and malpractice.
The Sixers really don't fit the narrative of a "demise" of super teams. Embiid, Simmons and Harris were never one, and switching out Simmons for a non-explosive-less-aggressive Harden to pair with Harris (and Maxey), wasn't a super team either. And if Embiid was pulled in the first 2 min of the 4th in that game against Toronto, he's healthy for the full Miami matchup, and that series might have looked quite different. The Nets and LA definitely fit the definition. I'd argue that the Clippers over-achieved without Kawhi, but that's another discussion.
Here's my issue with proclaiming Superstars to be toast: Which teams out there would reject the notion of assembling three top stars? Many teams still long to add stars. Superteams that rely heavily on Kyrie Irving ... agreed that no one wants that right now. But I don't think what's happening in Brooklyn speaks to a leaguewide trend just yet.
The team that comes out of the West should be better on paper. But first it has to come out of the West in good health. And while there are more clearly tiers of great and good in the East, I think it will be an exciting scrum to avoid the play-ins and that you cannot sleep on ATL and TOR. Assuming the Nets aren't sold off for parts, there could be six very good teams in both conferences.
The West is easily the most compelling. Even the play in race will be exciting. Portland, Lakers, Kings and Pelicans will all be fighting for those final spots.
But what is really exciting is all the different play styles on display. Basically every competitive team plays a different way. Clippers do it with superstar wings, Golden State with the best shooter in the game, Minnesota now has the twin towers, Denver plays through a point center, Mavs going pure Luka ball, Suns with textbook efficiency, Memphis has a super athletic non shooting point guard.
There are more good teams than playoff spots and it feels like any team could lose to a lower seed because of a bad play style match up
On paper, the WEST will once again have more teams that are battling for the playoffs and more likely to have a winning record. But once the games play out, we will see what happens - as with the Clippers last year, injuries can devastate a club - say Rudy or KAT go down for an extended period of time for 'Sota - can they still be competitive missing one of those big pieces? In the East - you've got Boston, Milwaukee, Philly, Miami, maybe the-mess-that-is-Brooklyn, but then Atlanta could actually put together an impressive stretch if their guards click early, NYC and DC could surprise and be competitive night-in-and-out, and Orlando could decide to click...and then what? That's 9 teams right there; Pacers are most likely making at least one more move, Deee-TROIT should be super fun to watch even if they'll lose a lot of games - top 8 for either side should be very competitive. If everyone is healthy, West's top 6 look better than the East, but that's WHY THEY PLAY THE GAMES, and we're all better for it :)
Yes, I believe the West will be stronger this year. In fact, contrary to popular opinion, the conferences were roughly equal in overall win/loss percentage last year. As Marc says, the Clippers, Nuggets, Pelicans, and Timberwolves should all be better; and all of the four semifinalists (Warriors, Mavericks. Suns, and Grizzlies) should remain strong contenders. Even the Blazers and Kings should be better, and only the Jazz and Spurs should be much worse. So, yes, the West is back big time.
I really thought last season, putting the actual championship outcome aside, that the East was legitimately more compelling. It appears we won't be saying that two seasons in a row.
I’ve become a massive LeBron fan because of the Ray Allen Transitive (I’m a Seattle Sonics fan/griever who rooted for Ray Allen wherever he played). And I’m dreading the very strong possibility that the Lakers and LeBron won’t be playoff-relevant. Like you, I’m hoping that a Westbrook trade will somehow make a huge difference. I find myself being optimistic about the rumors of maybe getting Patrick Beverly. That’s how bad it is for me.
I hear you. If we could somehow loop the pacers in to a 4 team deal to get Turner, I’d be all in for it, as it would be the formula the 2019-20 championship team had with PatBev filling in for AB/AC and Turner replacing Javale.
We’d have to fill in the other starting spot with whomever is the best shooter or trade for one at the deadline.
I am still super disappointed if we don’t get Kyrie, but maybe that just will not be an option now that KD looks like he won’t be traded. But, this is a super fall back option considering we had NO takers for Russ prior to free agency starting.
The Trade Machine is an endless bag of potato chips. I will crunch, crunch, crunch trades until I pass out. I think Indians would need more to make that trade.
Thanks as always for excellent articles!!! You and Chad Ford have been my top 2 go-to's for all things NBA for 2 decades. I'm thankful you're still doing it.
I apologize it's length, but would like your opinion of this ESPN Trade Machine Deal I messed around with. I know it's unlikely, but it looks good in all aspects to me, for every team involved.
Brooklyn gets:
Tobias Harris
Donavan Mitchell
Jordan Clarkson
Philly gets:
Kevin Durant
LA Lakers get:
Kyrie Irving
Matisse Thybulle
Utah gets:
Russell Westbrook
Tyrese Maxey
Draft Picks from each team
-LAL gets Kyrie and rid of Russ…. Their main goal ALL summer…….
Plus a solid young SG in Thybulle, known for his solid D
-Utah gets Russ for 1 year & can do a sign & trade or let him walk for $44 million in cap space after 1 year….
They also get Maxey, a young stud G
They pull a big haul of 1st Rd Draft Picks, at least 1 from each team and a couple 2nd Rd Picks as well from Philly & LAL since they got the main guys they wanted in all this
-Philly is an instant title favorite in adding Durant….
They also get rid of Tobias’ heavy contract
-Brooklyn restocks with a Superstar in Mitchell and 2 rock solid Starters in Tobias & Jordan Clarkson, both good shooters to be running the wings with Ben Simmons at PG
Potential Starting 5’s
Brooklyn:
Ben Simmons
Donavan Mitchell
Seth Curry
Tobias Harris
LeMarcus Aldridge / Blake Griffin / new FA
Philly:
James Harden
DeAnthony Melton
Kevin Durant
PJ Tucker
Joel Embiid
LAL:
Kyrie Irving
Taylor Horton-Tucker / M. Thybulle
LeBron James
Anthony Davis
Dwight Howard / new FA
Utah:
Russell Westbrook
Tyrese Maxey
B. Bogdanovic
Jared Vanderbilt
Hassan Whiteside
I am a big fan of yours Mr. Stein and have been as subscriber since you started your newsletter on Substack. I want to be polite and so I hope you take my note as it is intended. I subscribe to several other substack newsletters including two basketball ones. Most of the writers I pay to subscribe to post four to five times a week AND sometimes add podcasts. I was hoping you would have a more regular and frequent schedule. Do you plan to increase your output?
Hi David. Appreciate the kind words. The frequency perhaps dips a bit in August, when things slow down leaguewide, but I have to point out: I averaged four posts a week during my first year of publishing here and as recently as June there were 24 posts from me in a 30-day month. And even though I've been gone for the past several days on an overseas trip, there will be at least three stories this week (I literally just sent out 2,700 words after coming home from the airport) to go with the four I published last week ... putting me at an average of 4.5 pieces per week through the first eight weeks of Year 2 for this Substack. If other writers are regularly delivering more than that to your inbox, my hat is off to them. PS -- I am still working on adding a podcast to all my Spotify Live audio sessions but putting that puzzle together has been more difficult than anticipated.
Maybe I have recency bias, or I just miss your newsletter. Mainly, I’m just pleased you will be back up to 4 or 5 posts soon. You have to admit, it must be nice to have a fan who wants MORE content from you! Thanks for the quick response. Oh, btw, at the end of the day, will the Knicks end up with Mitchell?😉
I can't tell you when ... but I do think that the Knicks ultimately win the Mitchell Sweepstakes.
This is a threshold issue: which conference has more than the other when you draw the line in your power rankings/tiers.
My threshold is the playoffs: which conference's first team out is better than the first team in of the other conference. Most likely that will still be the Western Conference. That was the case for about 20 straight years after Jordan retired until the last two or three years, based on record alone. (When the 9th place West wasn't better by record than the 8th East, the West 9th was still better.)
While on the subject of depth, has anybody else taken up this argument: each conference in this year's play-in tournament represented the prototypical reasons for and against the tournament. The East teams got into the playoffs after loafing the whole regular season. The two teams in the Western Conference were very good at the end of the year but had a mediocre to horrible start to the year due to injuries, chemistry and identity issues.
Yes, the Cavs and Clippers would have deserved to get into the playoffs due to their whole regular season work, but they were both severely injured and would have been crushed in the playoffs more than their replacement teams were beaten.
I'm a huge play-in supporter ... pretty much whatever happens in those games I am prepared to live with.
The East won a few more games vs. the West last year. Even if there's a swing back, it won't be by many games. What matters in that competition, really, is how many bad teams a conference has. The West has Houston, Sac (maybe), OKC, Utah (maybe). The East has Detroit (again, maybe), DC, Knicks (mortal lock to be bad), Orlando. It's going to be tight.
I am not taking Denver, Dallas, Philly, Memphis or the Nets seriously as contenders until they prove otherwise. It's between Boston, Milwaukee, Warriors and maybe PHX.
The Kings might not make the playoffs, but I don't think we should put them in the Houston/OKC/Utah section. The Jazz aren't even there yet until they trade Mitchell.
What I love about that Kawhi photo is that it seems to be taken from a trainer's room. Fitting, considering how much time he's spent out of action. Get me impressed with an on-the-court photo, if you can
Hahaha! Preach! 😤🤣
I'm betting on the Kawhi comeback. He took the extra cautious route back and I think he will be rewarded for it.
I’m not ready to buy anyone in the West but the Warriors & Grizzles as true title contenders as of now. In the East I think a case can be made for Philly to join Milwaukee & Boston, much as I hate to admit it.
Not buying Grizz as contender.
No Clippers? No Denver? Wut?
Too many variables with both teams. Not sure I trust Denver’s supporting cast even when healthy, think they’re going to miss Monte Morris more than they realize. Huge drop off to Ish Smith. Penciling in the Clippers has never worked for anyone. Hope Kawhi & PG are healthy but they haven’t done anything as a group to warrant being named a contender. Memphis is going to miss Melton & Anderson but their trajectory under Ja/Jenkins gives me confidence they’ll be one of the last four standing.
I buy the Clippers. It’s hard to buy Denver cause I haven’t seen Murray and Porter Jr on the biggest stage.
2020 Bubble for the Nuggets. The issue with Porter is his health. The depth beyond the top 4 is still iffy, but if Murray and Jokic are staggered on the bench, then the Nuggets won't die in Jokic's bench minutes (and he won't have as big of on-off numbers).
I agree with most of the responses here -- the west is back, and definitely much stronger than the east, and should be stronger than they were last year, if the injuries are kept to a minimum.
But I think a more compelling story is the demise of these so-called super-teams that are for the most part player-initiated or player recruited: The Nets, 76ers, Clippers, and any team that LeBron James is on. I think it was divine justice that all 4 of these teams tanked last year. The Clippers were beset by injuries to be sure, but the other three were just not that good injuries or no injuries......and any team (I'm talking to you Lakers) that goes after Kyrie Irving, the world's greatest part time basketball player will be guilty of mismanagement and malpractice.
The Sixers really don't fit the narrative of a "demise" of super teams. Embiid, Simmons and Harris were never one, and switching out Simmons for a non-explosive-less-aggressive Harden to pair with Harris (and Maxey), wasn't a super team either. And if Embiid was pulled in the first 2 min of the 4th in that game against Toronto, he's healthy for the full Miami matchup, and that series might have looked quite different. The Nets and LA definitely fit the definition. I'd argue that the Clippers over-achieved without Kawhi, but that's another discussion.
Here's my issue with proclaiming Superstars to be toast: Which teams out there would reject the notion of assembling three top stars? Many teams still long to add stars. Superteams that rely heavily on Kyrie Irving ... agreed that no one wants that right now. But I don't think what's happening in Brooklyn speaks to a leaguewide trend just yet.
There are too many good players out there. And the Nets, Sixers and Lakers built their teams off of the best players 5-15 years ago.
LeBron is good, but not 50-win good anymore. Durant is still about that range.
The team that comes out of the West should be better on paper. But first it has to come out of the West in good health. And while there are more clearly tiers of great and good in the East, I think it will be an exciting scrum to avoid the play-ins and that you cannot sleep on ATL and TOR. Assuming the Nets aren't sold off for parts, there could be six very good teams in both conferences.
You're right. Both conferences realistically got tougher with, for example,, Philly's and Atlanta's moves spicing up the East race, too.
The West is easily the most compelling. Even the play in race will be exciting. Portland, Lakers, Kings and Pelicans will all be fighting for those final spots.
But what is really exciting is all the different play styles on display. Basically every competitive team plays a different way. Clippers do it with superstar wings, Golden State with the best shooter in the game, Minnesota now has the twin towers, Denver plays through a point center, Mavs going pure Luka ball, Suns with textbook efficiency, Memphis has a super athletic non shooting point guard.
There are more good teams than playoff spots and it feels like any team could lose to a lower seed because of a bad play style match up
More excellent analysis. This one might even germinate into a full column.
On paper, the WEST will once again have more teams that are battling for the playoffs and more likely to have a winning record. But once the games play out, we will see what happens - as with the Clippers last year, injuries can devastate a club - say Rudy or KAT go down for an extended period of time for 'Sota - can they still be competitive missing one of those big pieces? In the East - you've got Boston, Milwaukee, Philly, Miami, maybe the-mess-that-is-Brooklyn, but then Atlanta could actually put together an impressive stretch if their guards click early, NYC and DC could surprise and be competitive night-in-and-out, and Orlando could decide to click...and then what? That's 9 teams right there; Pacers are most likely making at least one more move, Deee-TROIT should be super fun to watch even if they'll lose a lot of games - top 8 for either side should be very competitive. If everyone is healthy, West's top 6 look better than the East, but that's WHY THEY PLAY THE GAMES, and we're all better for it :)
Enjoyed your East passion. I don't want to think about injuries in August, though. It's much more fun to assume reasonably good health.
And I totally forgot T-Dot! Yeah, the east is going to have some beasts, too!
Yes, I believe the West will be stronger this year. In fact, contrary to popular opinion, the conferences were roughly equal in overall win/loss percentage last year. As Marc says, the Clippers, Nuggets, Pelicans, and Timberwolves should all be better; and all of the four semifinalists (Warriors, Mavericks. Suns, and Grizzlies) should remain strong contenders. Even the Blazers and Kings should be better, and only the Jazz and Spurs should be much worse. So, yes, the West is back big time.
I really thought last season, putting the actual championship outcome aside, that the East was legitimately more compelling. It appears we won't be saying that two seasons in a row.
I think the West is BACK, Baby!!!! 🙌
They simply have more championship contenders than the East, not to mention depth.
West:
— GSW, Clippers, Nuggets, Suns, Grizzlies (if they make a 3 for 1 trade)
— And don’t sleep on my Lakers if we can pull off a decent Russ trade.
East:
Boston, Milwaukee are solid contenders, with maybe Brooklyn and Philly being wildcards?
Give me the West again. Then again, maybe it always the West and the lEastern Conference renaissance was a mirage last year? 🧐🤷🏽♂️🤣
I’ve become a massive LeBron fan because of the Ray Allen Transitive (I’m a Seattle Sonics fan/griever who rooted for Ray Allen wherever he played). And I’m dreading the very strong possibility that the Lakers and LeBron won’t be playoff-relevant. Like you, I’m hoping that a Westbrook trade will somehow make a huge difference. I find myself being optimistic about the rumors of maybe getting Patrick Beverly. That’s how bad it is for me.
I hear you. If we could somehow loop the pacers in to a 4 team deal to get Turner, I’d be all in for it, as it would be the formula the 2019-20 championship team had with PatBev filling in for AB/AC and Turner replacing Javale.
We’d have to fill in the other starting spot with whomever is the best shooter or trade for one at the deadline.
I am still super disappointed if we don’t get Kyrie, but maybe that just will not be an option now that KD looks like he won’t be traded. But, this is a super fall back option considering we had NO takers for Russ prior to free agency starting.
We might as well change their name to the Los Angeles Fallbacks!
BTW: here is a current proposed trade from twitter user: @thatguybix9
https://imgur.com/a/CZwUZIM
Lakers Get:
— Pat Bev, M. Turner, Beasley, & Cam Reddish
Knicks Get:
— Donovan Mitchell
Pacers Get:
— THT & Derrick Rose + 1 first round pick from LAL
Jazz Get:
— Russ, Grimes, Toppin, & Quickley. And 5 first round picks (4 from NYK, 1 from Lakers)
The Trade Machine is an endless bag of potato chips. I will crunch, crunch, crunch trades until I pass out. I think Indians would need more to make that trade.
But yeah, that’s just a pie-in-the sky scenario.
Really want us to go after it, even if we have to include both picks. Just protect that 2029 pick and let’s go!
I’ll take Beasley and PatBev over Conley, Bojan, & Clarkson who are not 16 game “playoff” players.
Ooof… Haha! I hear you, though. 😵
I guess for me, better than the LA FAILURES. 😬😖
Or how about The FAKE Show.
Boo! ❌