How are you handling the early stages of a week without NBA playoff games?
Presumed answer: Poorly.
So hopefully this helps a little. The extended break between the conference finals and the NBA Finals enables us to launch our Finals Community Predictions Thread with lots of lead time before Thursday night’s Game 1 and likewise leaves plenty of time for readers of The Stein Line to register their series thoughts.
Who wins?
Title No. 18 for Boston?
Championship No. 2 for Dallas?
In how many games and why?
I'm going with Mavericks in 6 in the upset. Just like I did with Minnesota after the Timberwolves won three times on the defending champion Denver Nuggets' floor, I have decided that Dallas' three wins in Minneapolis in the space of nine days to win the West have earned my pick.
Back in October, in faraway Madrid, no one in the Dallas Mavericks' inner circle would have dared to dream any of this. The third trip to the NBA Finals in franchise history? After missing the playoffs completely? Clinched by winning in Minneapolis three times in nine days against the league's No. 1-ranked defense?
It also doesn't hurt the Mavericks' cause that they have the current leading contender for Best Player in the World on their side. Another also: Can’t help it … but I’m still not sure I trust these Celtics. Not even after a 64-18 regular season and a 12-2 cruise through the East.
Please follow suit below with YOUR forecast. And please remember to include your first and last name — or at least your first name and last initial — so we can clearly identify everyone's selections.
A tally of successful conference finals prognosticating, compiled as always by longtime loyal subscriber Deven P., will appear in the Tuesday Newsletter Extravaganza.
As always, would love to see one game to see what this looks like but that's not how this works. I've picked against the Mavs two straight rounds and even though I fear Luka like anyone else, and he can turn into God, this Celtics team is built to slow him down. I've been preparing myself for the Celtics breaking the tie with LAL, thus...
Mavs in 6. They have a lot of momentum and Luka, who seems to have rebounded from his earlier injuries and seems to have seized the moment. I know there's a historical case for Boston after the season they have had, but count me dubious until they actually do it.
it should be Boston in a walk because they win all the stats. but there's something about this Mavs team that makes me think it won't happen that way. Dallas is so good in clutch time right now and Boston... isn't. Mavs in 6.
addendum. Why do people think boston is deeper?? I m trying to figure that out. Gafford and hardaway and josh green and jaden hardy and exum vs kornet, pritchard, brisset.....who else? Technically horford is a bench player (if KP starts). I think dallas has better players 6 through 10......boston has an edge in starters, except for, you know, L U K A.
mavs in six or seven .... Luka is the best player in the championships. Kyrie might be #2. Jaylin brown is a beast but tatum is missing a heart. Lets ponder 4th quarters...Luka vs tatum. Mavs win this.
My heart says Mavs (I've enjoyed watching them defy all the narratives surrounding them, from Kidd to Kyrie, etc.), but my head says Celtics in 6.
Yes, they haven't been tested in the playoffs as much.. yes, nobody knows what Porzingis will bring. However, they have a lot of strong perimeter defenders (from one of the best in Jrue Holiday to a very sound and pesky Derrick White along with their two stars, who may not be elite but are no slouches), and a well oiled core.
Historically speaking, this year's Celtics teams was one of the more dominant teams in NBA history, with a Simple Rating Score of 10.75. There have only been 6 other teams with a SRS of 10.70 or higher. All but the '71-72 Milwaukee Bucks won the championship, and that Bucks team, with a 10.70 SRS just happened to run into the 69-13 Lakers, with a 11.65 SRS, the 2nd highest ranked of the aforementioned 6 teams.
I like the Mavs. Lots of little reasons like playoff Jason, rusty Porzingas, fully healthy or at least healthier Luka, and pressure clearly on Celtics. Biggest difference is coaching! Big edge Mavs. It shouldn’t be but give me Mavs in 6
Mavs in 7. Both teams split at home to get to 2-2, then both road teams win games 5 and 6. In game 7, the Mavs will be down by 8 with 5 min left, Kyrie goes on a run to bring the Mavs back to go ahead by 1pt with about 1:30 left, Tatum passes the ball to Brown who hits a 3 to go up by 2. Both teams get stops, then Luka hits a dagger 3 with less than 20 seconds to go. Final possession ends with Tatum and Brown being chased off of shots, swinging the ball around to Horford who throws up a last second prayer from the corner that clanks off the rim. Mavs win, Luka is inevitable.
Mavericks in 6. Kyrie is one of the most gifted players on the planet; if Boston fans piss him off, he has shown he can cook when aggravated in the playoffs. Luka is gonna get his no matter what. I feel KP is going to be rusty and it’s going to cost them 3 of the first 4 games.
Celtics in 7. Banner 18 was never going to be easy despite the C’s journey through the east to the finals. Dallas has peaked at the right time, has two incredible scorers/playmakers in Luka and Kyrie along with role players who now believe in themselves and their overall chemistry. The C’s hold clear advantages in terms of overall talent, scoring options and defensive versatility. As we’ve seen over the last four plus decades many champions have to go through postseason battles and experience playoff challenges and heartbreak before reaching the mountain top. The Celtics are right there, as this will be their moment to put their past playoff disappointments to bed as they hoist the gold ball into the air signifying banner 18.
The Mavs have faced adversity this postseason. That’s something you can’t quite claim for the Celtics. I think that’ll help them down the stretch but it’ll be a battle. Luka outshines Tatum and mavs win through athleticism and grit. Mavs in 7.
Mavs in 6...possibly 7...the road wins will kill the Celtics. Luka cannot be contained away from Dallas...and he ain't half bad at home either. Luka and Kyrie along with Lively/Gafford is going to give Boston fits. If they cont to get what they have from PJ and DJJ as well, its over in 6. Boston has had no real resistance in over a month...and no real competition. Dallas is a buzzsaw NO ONE sees coming until the series is over...they better be ready...MFFL!!!!
I don't trust the Celtics in crunch time! I do trust the Mavs to close. Also like their ability to control the boards, too. Mavs in 6, but I see every game being a close one...
You say that like the Luka or Kyrie NEED to hunt...thats the biggest difference between these 2 and its all over the fans and the media...they need to hunt for the weak spots...Dallas just scores at will. At no time in these playoffs have you heard anyone talk about Luka hunting for the weak link in the other teams def. Nor kyrie. Mavs in 6...MAYBE 7.
“Scores at will” they have the 6th ORTG in the playoffs while Celtics have 2nd. And I’m not saying they “need to hunt”. What I’m saying is the Celtics have more answers for what Mavs can do than Mavs have answers for what Celtics can do
As always, would love to see one game to see what this looks like but that's not how this works. I've picked against the Mavs two straight rounds and even though I fear Luka like anyone else, and he can turn into God, this Celtics team is built to slow him down. I've been preparing myself for the Celtics breaking the tie with LAL, thus...
Celtics over Mavs in 6
Mavs in 6. They have a lot of momentum and Luka, who seems to have rebounded from his earlier injuries and seems to have seized the moment. I know there's a historical case for Boston after the season they have had, but count me dubious until they actually do it.
it should be Boston in a walk because they win all the stats. but there's something about this Mavs team that makes me think it won't happen that way. Dallas is so good in clutch time right now and Boston... isn't. Mavs in 6.
Celtics in 6
addendum. Why do people think boston is deeper?? I m trying to figure that out. Gafford and hardaway and josh green and jaden hardy and exum vs kornet, pritchard, brisset.....who else? Technically horford is a bench player (if KP starts). I think dallas has better players 6 through 10......boston has an edge in starters, except for, you know, L U K A.
mavs in six or seven .... Luka is the best player in the championships. Kyrie might be #2. Jaylin brown is a beast but tatum is missing a heart. Lets ponder 4th quarters...Luka vs tatum. Mavs win this.
My heart says Mavs (I've enjoyed watching them defy all the narratives surrounding them, from Kidd to Kyrie, etc.), but my head says Celtics in 6.
Yes, they haven't been tested in the playoffs as much.. yes, nobody knows what Porzingis will bring. However, they have a lot of strong perimeter defenders (from one of the best in Jrue Holiday to a very sound and pesky Derrick White along with their two stars, who may not be elite but are no slouches), and a well oiled core.
Historically speaking, this year's Celtics teams was one of the more dominant teams in NBA history, with a Simple Rating Score of 10.75. There have only been 6 other teams with a SRS of 10.70 or higher. All but the '71-72 Milwaukee Bucks won the championship, and that Bucks team, with a 10.70 SRS just happened to run into the 69-13 Lakers, with a 11.65 SRS, the 2nd highest ranked of the aforementioned 6 teams.
Mavs in 6. The best player in the series is the trump card.
Dallas 4 - 3 Boston
Mavs in 6
I like the Mavs. Lots of little reasons like playoff Jason, rusty Porzingas, fully healthy or at least healthier Luka, and pressure clearly on Celtics. Biggest difference is coaching! Big edge Mavs. It shouldn’t be but give me Mavs in 6
Mavs in 7. Both teams split at home to get to 2-2, then both road teams win games 5 and 6. In game 7, the Mavs will be down by 8 with 5 min left, Kyrie goes on a run to bring the Mavs back to go ahead by 1pt with about 1:30 left, Tatum passes the ball to Brown who hits a 3 to go up by 2. Both teams get stops, then Luka hits a dagger 3 with less than 20 seconds to go. Final possession ends with Tatum and Brown being chased off of shots, swinging the ball around to Horford who throws up a last second prayer from the corner that clanks off the rim. Mavs win, Luka is inevitable.
Mavs in 5!
Mavs in 4
Mavericks in 6. Kyrie is one of the most gifted players on the planet; if Boston fans piss him off, he has shown he can cook when aggravated in the playoffs. Luka is gonna get his no matter what. I feel KP is going to be rusty and it’s going to cost them 3 of the first 4 games.
Celtics in 5.
Cs in 5, the margin for error is so much bigger for the Celtics cause of their depth
Celtics in 7. Banner 18 was never going to be easy despite the C’s journey through the east to the finals. Dallas has peaked at the right time, has two incredible scorers/playmakers in Luka and Kyrie along with role players who now believe in themselves and their overall chemistry. The C’s hold clear advantages in terms of overall talent, scoring options and defensive versatility. As we’ve seen over the last four plus decades many champions have to go through postseason battles and experience playoff challenges and heartbreak before reaching the mountain top. The Celtics are right there, as this will be their moment to put their past playoff disappointments to bed as they hoist the gold ball into the air signifying banner 18.
Celtics in 6.
Mavs in 6.
The Mavs have faced adversity this postseason. That’s something you can’t quite claim for the Celtics. I think that’ll help them down the stretch but it’ll be a battle. Luka outshines Tatum and mavs win through athleticism and grit. Mavs in 7.
Mavs in 6. LUKAI bringin the trophy back to Big D.
Mavs in 6... (maybe wishful thinking from this Lakers fan...)
mavs in 6
Mavs in 6...possibly 7...the road wins will kill the Celtics. Luka cannot be contained away from Dallas...and he ain't half bad at home either. Luka and Kyrie along with Lively/Gafford is going to give Boston fits. If they cont to get what they have from PJ and DJJ as well, its over in 6. Boston has had no real resistance in over a month...and no real competition. Dallas is a buzzsaw NO ONE sees coming until the series is over...they better be ready...MFFL!!!!
Boston in 4.
mavs 6
Celtics in 4. Jaylen Brown MVP due to defensive work on Luka
Celtics in 6. JT MVP.
Mavs in 5. Jayson Tatum folds. Mavs flow.
Anne B.
Mavs in 7
Celtics in 5.
Mavs in 6. Luka finally has a squad with that That.
Mavs in 4!
Mavs in 6!!!
I don't trust the Celtics in crunch time! I do trust the Mavs to close. Also like their ability to control the boards, too. Mavs in 6, but I see every game being a close one...
Mavs in 7, Luka pulls it out in the end
Mavs in 5, Boston hasn’t played a meaningful game since April and will be down 3-0 before their coaches figure something out.
Mavs in 6
Due to Luka/Kyrie at end of games which will be close & much improved defense
Boston in 7
Celtics in 6.
I think the Mavs win G2 and then G3 at home, kinda in the inverse of the 22' finals.
Mavs in 7
Mavs in 6. Win Games 1, 4, 5, 6.
Celtics in 6
Win on Dallas floor
Mavs in 6
Mavs in 6. Lose game 1 and 5
Celtics in 5 is my prediction. Just so many ways the Celtics can hunt the Mavs that can’t be reciprocated.
You say that like the Luka or Kyrie NEED to hunt...thats the biggest difference between these 2 and its all over the fans and the media...they need to hunt for the weak spots...Dallas just scores at will. At no time in these playoffs have you heard anyone talk about Luka hunting for the weak link in the other teams def. Nor kyrie. Mavs in 6...MAYBE 7.
“Scores at will” they have the 6th ORTG in the playoffs while Celtics have 2nd. And I’m not saying they “need to hunt”. What I’m saying is the Celtics have more answers for what Mavs can do than Mavs have answers for what Celtics can do
Mavs in 6. Loosing the 1st and 5th game.
Celtics in 5
Celtics in 6
Mavericks in 7